China's retail trade rose by 7.5 percent year-on-year in August 2019, the least since April, following a 7.6 percent growth in the previous month, and below market estimates of 7.9 percent. Sales fell further for automobiles (-8.1% vs -2.6% in July); jewellery (-7% vs -1.6%); and oil & oil products (-1.2% vs -1.1%). Also, sales of furniture advanced at a softer rate (5.7% vs 6.3%). On the other hand, sales went up at a faster pace for garments (5.2% vs 2.9%); cosmetics (12.8% vs 9.4%); home appliances (4.2% vs 3%); office supplies (19.8% vs 14.5%); telecoms (3.5% vs 1%); and building materials (5.9% vs 0.4%). Additionally, sales of personal care rose 13 percent, the same as in July. Considering the January to August period, retail sales advanced 8.2 percent from the corresponding period a year earlier. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.77 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 7.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 7.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.