China's retail sales increased by 8.7 percent year-on-year in March 2019, faster than a 8.2 percent gain in the previous period and above market expectations of a 8.4 percent gain. It was the largest rise in retail trade since September last year, as sales advanced further garments (6.6 percent vs 1.8 percent in January-February); cosmetics (14.4 percent vs 8.9 percent); personal care (16.6 percent vs 15.9 percent); home appliances (15.2 percent vs 3.3 percent); furniture (12.8 percent vs 0.7 percent); oil & oil products (7.1 percent vs 2.5 percent); telecoms (13.8 percent vs 8.2 percent); and building materials (10.8 percent vs 6.6 percent). In contrast, sales fell for both jewelry (-1.2 percent vs 4.4 percent), and office supplies (-4 percent vs 8.8 percent). Considering the first quarter of 2019, retail sales grew by 8.3 percent from the corresponding period a year earlier. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.86 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 8.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.