China's retail sales rose by 8.1 percent from a year earlier in November 2018, easing from an increase of 8.6 percent in the previous month and missing market expectations of 8.8 percent. It was the smallest gain in retail trade since May 2003, as sales rose at a softer pace for: cosmetics (4.4 percent vs 6.4 percent in October); furniture (8 percent vs 9.5 percent); and oil, oil products (8.5 percent vs 17.1 percent). In addition, automobiles trade plunged 10 percent (vs -6.4 percent in October), alongside a decline in sales of telecoms (-5.9 percent vs 7.1 percent) and office supplies (-0.4 percent vs -3.3 percent). By contrast, sales growth accelerated for: garments (5.5 percent vs 4.7 percent); jewelry (5.6 percent vs 4.7 percent); personal care (16 percent vs 10.2 percent); home appliances (12.5 percent vs 4.8 percent); and building materials (9.8 percent vs 8.5 percent). From January to November, retail sales grew 9.1 percent compared to the same period 2017. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.93 percent from 1993 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 8.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 7.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.