China's retail sales increased by 8.6 percent from a year earlier in October 2018, following a 9.2 percent rise in the previous month and missing market expectations of 9.1 percent. It was the weakest growth in retail trade since May, as sales slowed for: garments (4.7 percent vs 9 percent in September); cosmetics (6.4 percent vs 7.7 percent); jewelry (4.7 percent vs 11.6 percent); personal care (10.2 percent vs 17.4 percent); home appliances (4.8 percent vs 5.7 percent); furniture (9.5 percent vs 9.9 percent); telecoms (7.1 percent vs 16.9 percent); and oil, oil products (17.1 percent vs 19.2 percent). In addition, sales plunged for both office supplies (-3.3 percent vs 4.9 percent) and automobiles (-6.4 percent vs -7.1 percent). Building materials trade growth, however, accelerated to 8.5 percent from 8.4 percent in the previous month. From January to October, retail sales grew 9.2 percent compared to the same period 2017. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 12.28 percent from 2010 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 19.90 percent in January of 2011 and a record low of 8.50 percent in May of 2018.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 8.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 7.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.
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