Retail sales in Canada increased 0.2% month-over-month in September of 2018, after showing no growth in the previous month and above market expectations of a 0.1% rise. Gains were seen at food and beverage stores (+0.9%), as higher sales at supermarkets and other grocery stores (+1.7%) more than offset a decline at beer, wine, and liquor stores (-1.7%), which posted their first decline after six consecutive monthly increases. Additionally, sales advanced at general merchandise stores (+1.2%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+0.5%), both new (+0.6%) and used (+2.9%) car dealers. On the other hand, lower sales were recorded at gasoline stations (-1.1%), down for the third time in four months, partly reflecting lower prices; building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.9%) and furniture and home furnishings stores (-0.7%). Year-on-year, retail trade advanced 3.8%, following an upwardly revised 3.7% gain in August. Retail Sales MoM in Canada averaged 0.37 percent from 1991 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 3.70 percent in December of 1997 and a record low of -4.50 percent in January of 1998.
Retail Sales MoM in Canada is expected to be 0.36 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Canada to stand at 0.37 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.