The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom declined to 2.1 percent in December 2018 from 2.3 percent in the previous month, in line with market expectations. It was the lowest inflation rate since January 2017, mostly due to lower cost of petrol and air fares. Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.58 percent from 1989 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 8.50 percent in April of 1991 and a record low of -0.10 percent in April of 2015.

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United Kingdom Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-17 08:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5%
2018-11-14 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%
2018-12-19 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%
2019-01-16 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2%
2019-02-13 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.1%
2019-03-20 09:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY
2019-04-17 08:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 1.5%



UK Annual Inflation Rate at 23-Month Low of 2.1%

The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom declined to 2.1 percent in December 2018 from 2.3 percent in the previous month, in line with market expectations. It was the lowest inflation rate since January 2017, mostly due to lower cost of petrol and air fares.

Year-on-year, prices slowed for transport (3.4 percent compared to 4.9 percent in November), namely fuels and lubricants (3.4 percent compared to 8.9 percent) and transport services (1.5 percent compared to 3.9 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (0.1 percent compared to 0.4 percent) and furniture, household equipment and maintenance (0.4 percent compared to 0.7 percent). Also, cost of clothing and footwear fell further (-0.9 percent compared to -0.8 percent). Meanwhile, prices rose at a faster pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.7 percent compared to 0.5 percent); recreation and culture (2.8 percent compared to 2.5 percent) and restaurants and hotels (3.1 percent compared to 2.7 percent). Additionally, inflation was steady for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (2.8 percent, the same as in November).

The consumer prices index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) increased by 2.0 percent in December, easing from a 2.2 percent gain in November. 

The annual core inflation rate, which excludes prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, went up by 1.9 percent, after rising 1.8 percent in the prior month and above market consensus of 1.8 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced 0.2 percent, unchanged from the previous month and matching market forecasts. Prices rebounded for transport (0.8 percent compared to -0.4 percent in November) and cost increased further for food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.9 percent compared to 0.1 percent) and furniture and household equipment (1.1 percent compared to 0.2 percent). On the other hand, cost of clothing and footwear dropped (-1.0 percent compared to 1.5 percent).


ONS | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
1/16/2019 9:54:21 AM


News

UK Annual Inflation Rate at 20-Month Low in November
The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom fell to 2.3 percent in November 2018 from 2.4 percent in the previous month, in line with market expectations. It was the lowest inflation rate since March last year, mainly due to a slowdown in cost of transport; food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture.
Published on 2018-12-19

UK Inflation Rate Below Forecasts at 2.4%
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom was flat at 2.4 percent in October of 2018, the same as in September but below market expectations of 2.5 percent. Prices slowed for transport and food but rose faster for housing and utilities and recreation and culture.
Published on 2018-11-14

UK Inflation Rate Falls to 3-Month Low of 2.4%
Annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom eased to 2.4 percent in September of 2018 from 2.7 percent in August, below market expectations of 2.6 percent. It is the lowest reading in three months, mainly due to a slowdown in cost of food, transport and recreation and culture and a fall in clothing prices. Still, it remains above the BoE's target of 2 percent.
Published on 2018-10-17

UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 6-Month High
Consumer price inflation in the UK rose to an annual rate of 2.7 percent in August 2018 from 2.5 percent in the previous month and comfortably above market expectations of 2.4 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since February mainly boosted by rising prices of transport, recreation & culture, and food & non-alcoholic beverages.
Published on 2018-09-19



United Kingdom Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.30 8.50 -0.10 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.20 3.37 -0.94 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.10 107.00 107.10 48.40 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 107.14 106.97 107.14 48.40 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 107.20 106.80 107.20 72.90 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 1.80 3.70 -0.10 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.50 104.05 104.50 4.24 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.50 3.00 27.80 -1.90 percent [+]
Food Inflation 0.70 0.50 13.00 -3.30 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 3.20 3.00 4.40 1.50 percent [+]
Producer Prices 114.90 115.20 115.20 8.10 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 113.40 113.20 113.40 89.80 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 105.80 105.80 105.80 31.70 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 111.30 110.40 113.30 40.40 Index Points [+]


United Kingdom Inflation Rate

In the United Kingdom, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Transport (16 percent of the total weight) and Recreation and Culture (15 percent). Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels accounts for 13 percent; Restaurants and Hotels for 12 percent and Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages for 10 percent. The index also includes: Miscellaneous Goods and Services (9 percent); Clothing and Footwear (7 percent); Furniture, Household Equipment and Maintenance (6 percent). Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco; Health, Communication and Education account for remaining 11 percent of total weight. This page provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.10 2.30 8.50 -0.10 1989 - 2018 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
Argentina 47.10 Dec/18
Australia 1.90 Sep/18
Brazil 3.75 Dec/18
Canada 2.00 Dec/18
China 1.90 Dec/18
Euro Area 1.60 Dec/18
France 1.60 Dec/18
Germany 1.70 Dec/18
India 2.19 Dec/18
Indonesia 3.13 Dec/18
Italy 1.10 Dec/18
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Mexico 4.83 Dec/18
Netherlands 2.00 Dec/18
Russia 4.30 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 2.80 Nov/18
Singapore 0.30 Nov/18
South Africa 5.20 Nov/18
South Korea 1.30 Dec/18
Spain 1.20 Dec/18
Switzerland 0.70 Dec/18
Turkey 20.30 Dec/18
United Kingdom 2.10 Dec/18
United States 1.90 Dec/18


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