Retail sales in Brazil declined 0.4% month-over-month in October of 2018, following a 1.3% drop in September and compared with market expectations of a 0.1% rise. Main decreases were seen in sales of furniture and household appliances (-2.5%); clothing and footwear (-2%); fuels and lubricants (-1.2%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-7.4% ); and furniture equipment and supplies for office, computer and communication (-0.8%). On the other hand, increases were seen in sales of supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (0.3%); other articles of personal and domestic use (0.7%); and pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfumery and cosmetics articles (0.9%). Year-on-year, retail sales increased 1.9%, above 0.1% in September. Retail Sales MoM in Brazil averaged 0.29 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.10 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.50 percent in January of 2016.
Retail Sales MoM in Brazil is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Brazil to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.