Retail sales in Brazil rose 1 percent month-over-month in July 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent gain in June and beating market expectations of a 0.1 percent fall. It was the biggest gain in retail trade since November last year, as sales increased further in hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages & tobacco (1.3 percent vs 0.1 percent in June); pharmaceutical & cosmetics articles (0.7 percent vs 0.3 percent); and other personal & domestic goods (2.2 percent vs 0.5 percent). Also, sales rebounded in furniture & appliances (1.6 percent vs -0.5 percent); and books, newspapers, magazines & stationery (1.8 percent vs -0.8 percent). Additionally, sales of office equipment, computer & communication dropped less (-1.6 percent vs -2.6 percent). On a yearly basis, retail trade went up 4.3 percent, after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent rise and above market consensus of a 1.95 percent gain. Retail Sales MoM in Brazil averaged 0.29 percent from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.90 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.70 percent in January of 2016.
Retail Sales MoM in Brazil is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Brazil to stand at 0.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.