The Turkish economy grew by 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, slowing from an upwardly revised 5.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and below market expectations of 2 percent. This was the weakest growth rate since a contraction in the third quarter of 2016, as household consumption and government spending increased at a softer pace while fixed investment fell. On the other hand, net external demand contributed positively to the expansion as a weak lira boosted exports. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey averaged 4.83 percent from 1999 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 11.70 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and a record low of -14.40 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey to stand at 1.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 3.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-03-29 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 7.3% 11.3% 7% 10.4%
2018-06-11 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 7.4% 7.3% 7% 7.5%
2018-09-10 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 5.2% 7.3% 5.1%
2018-12-10 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.6% 5.3% 2% 2.2%
2019-03-11 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.6% 0.5%
2019-05-31 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.1%
2019-09-02 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.5%



Turkish Q3 GDP Annual Growth Weakest in 2 Years

The Turkish economy grew by 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, slowing from an upwardly revised 5.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and below market expectations of 2 percent. This was the weakest growth rate since a contraction in the third quarter of 2016, as household consumption and government spending increased at a softer pace while investment fell. On the other hand, net external demand contributed positively to the expansion as a weak lira boosted exports.

On the expenditure side, household consumption increased 1.1 percent in the third quarter, after a 6.4 percent jump in Q2; and government spending went up at a softer 7.5 percent (vs 7.8 percent in Q2). In addition, fixed investment slumped 3.8 percent, following a 4.2 percent rise in the previous period. Net external demand contributed positively to the GDP growth, as exports jumped 13.6 percent (vs 4.2 percent in Q2) and imports tumbled 16.7 percent (vs 0.2 percent in Q2) due to a weak lira.
 
On the production side, services output grew at softer 4.5 percent (vs 8.9 percent in Q2), mainly due to public administration, education, human health and social work activities (10.2 percent vs 12.4 percent); financial and insurance activities (7.4 percent vs 11.8 percent); and information and communication (3.5 percent vs 7.2 percent); while professional, administrative and support service activities slumped (-7.8 percent vs -1.2 percent). Real estate expansion, however, accelerated to 2.3 percent in the three months to September from 0.2 percent in the previous period. Meanwhile, industrial production grew by just 0.3 percent (vs 4.2 percent in Q2), driven by manufacturing (0.6 percent vs 4.5 percent) and agriculture expanded by 1.0 percent, reversing a 2.8 percent fall in the previous period. Construction output shrank by 5.3 percent, following a 1.0 percent growth in the second quarter.
 
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy contracted by 1.1 percent in the third quarter, following a downwardly revised 0.6 percent growth in the previous period.


Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com
12/10/2018 11:04:57 AM



Turkey GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate -1.10 0.60 5.60 -5.20 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 5.30 11.70 -14.40 percent [+]
GDP 851.10 863.72 950.58 8.02 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 457722367.40 431365788.60 464822255.50 148486309.20 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 125935686.70 131472761.20 138694476.00 82266.40 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 14933.27 14117.44 14933.27 3134.78 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 25129.34 23756.48 25129.34 11289.91 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 54843545.90 16928268.50 54843545.90 6480266.00 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 34246741.00 33224559.80 36146657.30 5582784.30 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 69137857.90 73373124.00 79601043.70 23491042.00 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 43046748.90 45129705.30 45129705.30 21779242.77 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Services 105143134.20 99675946.40 107042725.30 35367503.20 TRY THO [+]


Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate

On the expenditure side, household consumption is the main component of Turkish GDP and accounts for 70 percent, followed by gross fixed capital formation (22 percent) and government expenditure (15 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 27 percent of GDP while imports account for 32 percent, subtracting 5 percent from total GDP. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.60 5.30 11.70 -14.40 1999 - 2018 percent Quarterly
NSA




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India 7.10 Sep/18
China 6.40 Dec/18
Indonesia 5.17 Sep/18
South Korea 3.10 Dec/18
United States 3.00 Sep/18
Australia 2.80 Sep/18
Mexico 2.50 Sep/18
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Turkey 1.60 Sep/18
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Brazil 1.30 Sep/18
Germany 1.10 Sep/18
South Africa 1.10 Sep/18
Italy 0.70 Sep/18
Japan 0.00 Sep/18
Argentina -3.50 Sep/18


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