The Turkish economy shrank by 2.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, following a 3 percent contraction in the previous period and compared with market expectations of a 2.5 percent contraction. It was the second straight quarter of GDP decline, throwing the country into recession. Household consumption and gross fixed capital formation continued to decline while government expenditure advanced faster and net foreign demand contributed positively to growth. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy advanced by 1.3 percent, rebounding from a 2.4 percent contraction in the last quarter of 2018. It was the first expansion in GDP growth since the first quarter of 2017. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey averaged 4.64 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 11.70 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and a record low of -14.40 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey is expected to be -2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Turkey to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-10 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 5.2% 7.3% 5.1%
2018-12-10 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 1.6% 5.3% 2% 2.2%
2019-03-11 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4 -3% 1.8% -2.7% -2.2%
2019-05-31 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1 -2.6% -3% -2.5% -3.2%
2019-09-02 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 -2.6% -1.1%
2019-12-02 07:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 -2%



Turkish Economy Shrinks for 2nd Quarter by 2.6% YoY in Q1

The Turkish economy shrank by 2.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, following a 3 percent contraction in the previous period and compared with market expectations of a 2.5 percent contraction. It was the second straight quarter of GDP decline, as household consumption and gross fixed capital formation continued to decrease while government expenditure advanced faster and net foreign demand contributed positively to growth.

On the expenditure side, household consumption tumbled 4.7 percent, after an 8.9 percent drop in Q4 and fixed investment slumped 13 percent, following a 12.9 percent fall in the previous period. On the other hand, government spending rose 7.2 percent (vs 0.5 percent in Q4) and net external demand contributed positively to the GDP growth, as exports increased 9.5 percent (vs 10.6 percent in Q4) and imports tumbled 28.8 percent (vs -24.4 percent in Q4) due to a weak lira.

On the production side, industrial production shrank by 4.3 percent (vs -6.4 percent in Q4) dragged by manufacturing (-4.7 percent vs -7.4 percent) and agriculture expanded by 2.5 percent, reversing a 0.5 percent fall in the previous period. Meantime, construction output shrank by 10.9 percent, following an 8.7 percent contraction in the third quarter. Also, services output contracted 4 percent (vs -0.3 percent in Q4), mainly due to professional, administrative and support service activities (-13 percent vs -10.2 percent), while financial and insurance activities rebounded (1.5 percent vs -16.2 percent); and public administration, education, human health and social work activities (8.8 percent vs 5.7 percent) and information and communication (2.3 percent vs 2.9 percent) continued to grow. At the same time, real estate expanded by 2 percent in the three months to March, easing from a 4.7 percent rise in the previous period.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy advanced by 1.3 percent, rebounding from a 2.4 percent contraction in the last quarter of 2018. It was the first expansion in GDP growth since the first quarter of 2017.  


Turkish Statistical Institute l Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com
5/31/2019 7:58:25 AM



Turkey GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 -2.40 5.60 -5.20 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -2.60 -3.00 11.70 -14.40 percent [+]
GDP 766.51 851.55 950.58 7.99 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 385221092.90 450961520.00 464822255.50 148486309.20 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 100644723.30 120801435.60 138694476.00 82266.40 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 15026.70 14870.70 15026.70 3134.80 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 25286.60 25024.00 25286.60 11289.90 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 10691613.00 24788022.00 54843545.90 6480266.00 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 24255743.30 30976895.40 36146657.30 5582784.30 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 67156607.40 73726975.30 79601043.70 23491042.00 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 45952228.61 45002063.81 45952228.61 21779242.77 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Services 88537213.20 106768068.30 107042725.30 35367503.20 TRY THO [+]


Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate

On the expenditure side, household consumption is the main component of Turkish GDP and accounts for 70 percent, followed by gross fixed capital formation (22 percent) and government expenditure (15 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 27 percent of GDP while imports account for 32 percent, subtracting 5 percent from total GDP. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Turkey GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-2.60 -3.00 11.70 -14.40 1999 - 2019 percent Quarterly
NSA




Country Last Previous
China 6.20 Jun/19
India 5.80 Mar/19
Indonesia 5.07 Mar/19
United States 3.20 Mar/19
Spain 2.40 Mar/19
Australia 1.80 Mar/19
United Kingdom 1.80 Mar/19
Netherlands 1.70 Mar/19
Saudi Arabia 1.70 Mar/19
South Korea 1.70 Mar/19
Switzerland 1.70 Mar/19
Canada 1.30 Mar/19
Euro Area 1.20 Mar/19
France 1.20 Mar/19
Mexico 1.20 Mar/19
Japan 0.90 Mar/19
Germany 0.70 Mar/19
Brazil 0.50 Mar/19
Russia 0.50 Mar/19
Singapore 0.10 Jun/19
South Africa 0.00 Mar/19
Italy -0.10 Mar/19
Turkey -2.60 Mar/19
Argentina -5.80 Mar/19


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