Retail trade in the UK rose 0.4 percent from a month earlier in February 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.9 percent increase in January and easily beating market expectations of a 0.4 percent drop. Growth was recorded in all main sectors with the exception of food stores, which posted its biggest decline since December 2016 (-1.2 percent vs 0.9 percent). Fuel sales jumped 2.2 percent (vs -0.8 percent in January) and non-food trade went up 0.9 percent (vs 0.2 percent in January), driven by sales at household good stores (0.8 percent vs -4.7 percent), non-specialised stores (0.3 percent vs -0.9 percent) and other stores (2.4 percent vs 2.7 percent). Compared with a year ago, retail sales advanced 4 percent in February. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.22 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.90 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.50 percent in June of 2008.
Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be -0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at -0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.