Retail sales in the United Kingdom jumped 1.1 percent from a month earlier in March 2019, defying market expectations of a 0.3 percent drop and following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent growth in February. Food stores and non-store retailing were the largest contributors towards the increase. Year-on-year, retail trade advanced 6.7 percent, the steepest annual gain since October 2016, as the milder weather in March helped boost sales in comparison with the bad weather experienced in the same month last year. Considering the first quarter as a whole, retail sales rose 1.6 percent, compared with the previous three months, the strongest increase since August 2018. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.23 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.90 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.50 percent in June of 2008.
Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be -0.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.