UK retail sales dropped 0.2 percent from a month earlier in August 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent growth in July and compared to market forecasts of a flat reading. Non-store retailing, predominantly online sales, plunged 3.2 percent, the biggest decline since August 2015. In addition, textile, clothing & footwear sales edged down 0.1 percent. In contrast, sales rose for household goods (2 percent), fuel (0.3 percent), and food (0.2 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade growth eased to 2.7 percent in August from 3.4 percent in July, also missing market forecasts of 2.9 percent. Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom averaged 0.22 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.90 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -3.50 percent in June of 2008.
Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom is expected to be -0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United Kingdom to stand at -0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.