The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to lower its key Selic rate by 50bps to a record low of 6 percent during its July meeting, while markets had forecast a smaller 25bps cut. The Committee signalled further easing, underscoring that recent data indicate weaker economic activity from previous quarters; a decelerating global economy and slower domestic inflation. Interest Rate in Brazil averaged 14.90 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 45 percent in March of 1999 and a record low of 6.50 percent in March of 2018.

Interest Rate in Brazil is expected to be 5.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Brazil to stand at 5.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Interest Rate is projected to trend around 5.75 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Brazil Interest Rate
Forecast Data Chart
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-20 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-05-08 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-06-19 09:30 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-07-31 09:15 PM Interest Rate Decision 6% 6.5% 6.25% 6.25%
2019-09-18 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6% 5.50% 5.50%
2019-10-30 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 5.50%
2019-12-11 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 5.50%

Brazil Unexpectedly Cuts Rate by 50 Bps

The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to lower its key Selic rate by 50bps to a record low of 6 percent during its July meeting, while markets had forecast a smaller 25bps cut. Policymakers said that the decision is consistent with the convergence of inflation to the target range and will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity and the inflation outlook.

The Committee underscored that recent data on economic activity indicate weaker economic activity from previous quarters, and that risks of a global slowdown persist. Policymakers also mentioned as main inflationary risks in both directions slack capacity; frustrated expectations over structural reforms, and unfavorable external conditions in emerging markets. They judged that the decision is backed by lower-than-expected inflation and a deteriorated balance of risks since the previous meeting. The Copom reiterated that economic conditions prescribe stimulative monetary policy, i.e., interest rates below the structural level.

The central bank started its easing cycle in October of 2016 after the inflation rate eased from double digits. The inflation rate finished 2018 within the central bank target of 4.5 percent plus or minus 1.5 percentage points and above 2.95 percent in 2017. It currently remains on target, as the annual inflation rate fell markedly to 3.37 percent in June (versus 4.66 percent in May).

The economic recovery is still taking longer than initially expected, with recent negative data. The Brazilian economy shrank 0.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, slowing from a 0.1 percent expansion in the previous period and in line with market. It was the first contraction since the last quarter of 2016. Furthermore, the latest central bank’s Focus survey of market expectations (26 July 2019) pointed to lower GDP growth forecasts for 2019, now at 0.82 percent (vs 0.87 percent four weeks ago).

Mario |
8/1/2019 7:47:58 AM

Brazil Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.00 6.00 45.00 6.00 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 21.00 21.00 100.00 21.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 282617.30 271344.69 308562.23 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 370034.79 367424.84 406865.02 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2882184.74 2878391.40 2882184.74 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 6521269.33 6462156.15 6521269.33 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 386478.00 385730.00 388092.00 1187.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6413995.20 6401619.80 6413995.20 1174638.70 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 588597.00 596543.00 875167.00 169316.00 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.93 6.40 54180.08 5.66 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.45 5.45 16.05 0.89 percent [+]
Loan Growth -0.20 0.30 3.68 -1.02 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3556330975.00 3553065374.00 3556330975.00 6.40 BRL Thousand [+]

Brazil Interest Rate

In Brazil, interest rate decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). The official interest rate is the Special System of Clearance and Custody rate (SELIC) which is the overnight lending rate. This page provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Brazil Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.00 6.00 45.00 6.00 1999 - 2019 percent Daily

Country Last Previous
Argentina 85.99 Sep/19
Turkey 16.50 Sep/19
Mexico 8.00 Aug/19
Russia 7.00 Sep/19
South Africa 6.50 Aug/19
Brazil 6.00 Aug/19
Indonesia 5.50 Aug/19
India 5.40 Aug/19
China 4.25 Sep/19
Saudi Arabia 2.75 Aug/19
United States 2.25 Aug/19
Canada 1.75 Sep/19
Singapore 1.74 Aug/19
South Korea 1.50 Aug/19
Australia 1.00 Sep/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Aug/19
Euro Area 0.00 Sep/19
France 0.00 Sep/19
Germany 0.00 Sep/19
Italy 0.00 Sep/19
Netherlands 0.00 Sep/19
Spain 0.00 Sep/19
Japan -0.10 Aug/19
Switzerland -0.75 Aug/19