The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at a record low of 6.50 percent on 20 March 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers noted that recent data on economic activity came in below expectations, still the domestic economy continues on a gradual recovery path and added that the global outlook remains challenging. Interest Rate in Brazil averaged 14.98 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 45 percent in March of 1999 and a record low of 6.50 percent in March of 2018.

Interest Rate in Brazil is expected to be 6.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Brazil to stand at 6.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Interest Rate is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Brazil Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-31 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2018-12-12 08:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-02-06 08:30 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-03-20 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-05-08 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5%
2019-06-19 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5%
2019-07-31 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5%



Brazil Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at a record low of 6.50 percent on March 20th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers noted that recent data on economic activity came in below expectations, still the domestic economy continues on a gradual recovery path and added that the global outlook remains challenging.

The Committee judged that the decision reflects its baseline scenario for prospective inflation and the associated balance of risks, and is consistent with convergence of inflation to target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2019 and, with gradually increasing weight, 2020. The Copom reiterated that economic conditions prescribe stimulative monetary policy, i.e., interest rates below the structural level.

The central bank started its easing cycle in October of 2016 after the inflation rate eased from double digits. The inflation rate finished 2018 within the central bank target of 4.5 percent plus or minus 1.5 percentage points and above 2.95 percent in 2017. It currently remains on target. The annual inflation rate in Brazil rose to 3.89 percent in February of 2019 from 3.78 percent in the previous month. It was the highest inflation rate in three months. 

The economic recovery is still taking longer than initially expected, with recent negative data. GDP grew 1.1 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, easing from 1.3 percent in the previous three-month period and missing market expectations of 1.3 percent. Household consumption and exports drove the expansion, while fixed investment rose at softer pace and government spending contracted. Meantime, industrial production in Brazil decreased 2.6 percent year-on-year in January 2019, following a 3.6 percent decline in the prior month and compared with market forecasts of a 1.2 percent fall.

The Copom's inflation projections in the scenario with interest rate and exchange rate paths extracted from the Focus survey stand around 3.9% for 2019 and 3.8% for 2020..


Banco Central do Brasil | Mario | mario@tradingeconomics.com
3/21/2019 10:28:11 AM



Brazil Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.50 6.50 45.00 6.50 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 21.00 21.00 100.00 21.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 286741.57 290147.81 308562.23 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 370873.70 373742.82 406865.02 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2784069.68 2793136.92 2830229.80 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 6266456.10 6284750.89 6284750.89 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 384165.00 378448.00 384165.00 1187.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6343649.90 6244139.30 6343649.90 1174638.70 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 635813.00 639629.00 875167.00 169316.00 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.51 12.40 9394.29 7.81 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.40 6.40 372919.82 6.39 percent [+]
Loan Growth 0.30 -0.80 3.68 -1.02 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3480346400.00 3477385752.00 3526683522.00 6.40 BRL Thousand [+]


Brazil Interest Rate

In Brazil, interest rate decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). The official interest rate is the Special System of Clearance and Custody rate (SELIC) which is the overnight lending rate. This page provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Brazil Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.50 6.50 45.00 6.50 1999 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 67.87 Apr/19
Turkey 24.00 Mar/19
Mexico 8.25 Mar/19
Russia 7.75 Mar/19
South Africa 6.75 Mar/19
Brazil 6.50 Mar/19
India 6.00 Apr/19
Indonesia 6.00 Mar/19
China 4.35 Mar/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Mar/19
United States 2.50 Mar/19
Singapore 2.24 Mar/19
Canada 1.75 Apr/19
South Korea 1.75 Apr/19
Australia 1.50 Apr/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Mar/19
Euro Area 0.00 Apr/19
France 0.00 Apr/19
Germany 0.00 Apr/19
Italy 0.00 Apr/19
Netherlands 0.00 Apr/19
Spain 0.00 Apr/19
Japan -0.10 Apr/19
Switzerland -0.75 Mar/19


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