The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at 6.50 percent on 12 December 2018 as widely expected, keeping borrowing costs at the lowest level in modern history amid target inflation and lackluster GDP growth. It was the second monetary policy meeting after the presidential election. Interest Rate in Brazil averaged 15.06 percent from 1999 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 45 percent in March of 1999 and a record low of 6.50 percent in March of 2018.

Interest Rate in Brazil is expected to be 6.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Brazil to stand at 6.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Interest Rate is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Brazil Interest Rate
width
height
Forecast Data Chart
Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices.

The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds.


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-08-01 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2018-09-19 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2018-10-31 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2018-12-12 08:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-02-06 08:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5%
2019-03-20 08:00 PM Interest Rate Decision
2019-05-08 08:00 PM Interest Rate Decision



Brazil Holds Interest Rate at 6.50% as Expected

The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at 6.50 percent on 12 December 2018 as widely expected, keeping borrowing costs at the lowest level in modern history amid target inflation and lackluster GDP growth. It was the second monetary policy meeting after the presidential election.

Policymakers underscored that the global outlook remains challenging for emerging economies, saying main risks are associated with an increase in risk aversion in global financial markets, with normalization of interest rates in some advanced economies, and with uncertainty regarding international trade policy. The central added the current economic scenario warrants loose monetary policy, with rates below neutral.

The central bank started its easing cycle in October of 2016 after the inflation rate eased from double digits. Annual inflation rate in Brazil eased to 4.05 percent in November of 2018 from 4.56 percent in October and below market expectations of 4.19 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate in six months, due to slowing prices for electricity and fuels to fall moderately below the midpoint of the central bank's target range of 4.5 percent +/- 1.5 percent.

The economic recovery is still taking longer than initially expected, albeit a recent uptick. Brazil’s GDP expanded 0.8 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, above a 0.2 percent rise in the previous period and in line with market expectations. It was the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2017, mainly due to a rebound in investment and government spending after a nationwide truck strike during May and June caused supply disruptions and weighed down on growth. Through the first nine month of 2018, the Brazilian economy expanded 1.1 percent. 

The median estimate in the last central bank poll of economists (07 December 2018) currently points to growth of 1.30 percent for 2018 (vs 1.36 percent four weeks ago) and of 2.53 percent for 2019 (vs 2.50 percent four week ago). Analysts expect the Selic rate to end 2018 at 6.50 percent (unchanged), rise to 7.5 percent in 2019 (vs 8.00 percent four weeks ago) and to 8 percent in 2020. Inflation is seen at 3.7 percent in 2018, 3.9 percent in 2019, and 3.6 percent in 2020. 


Mario | mario@tradingeconomics.com
12/13/2018 11:44:27 AM



Brazil Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.50 6.50 45.00 6.50 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 21.00 25.00 100.00 21.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 308562.23 279258.83 308562.23 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 406865.02 374359.15 406865.02 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2765641.22 2759335.41 2765641.22 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 6152551.25 6134592.81 6152551.25 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 374715.00 379722.00 382549.00 1187.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6156144.10 5968057.90 6156144.10 1174638.70 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 652069.00 652825.00 875284.00 169316.00 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.51 12.40 9394.29 7.81 percent [+]
Loan Growth 1.10 -0.10 3.68 -1.01 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3439095642.00 3470929272.00 3526683522.00 6.40 BRL Thousand [+]


Brazil Interest Rate

In Brazil, interest rate decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). The official interest rate is the Special System of Clearance and Custody rate (SELIC) which is the overnight lending rate. This page provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Brazil Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.50 6.50 45.00 6.50 1999 - 2018 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 57.80 Jan/19
Turkey 24.00 Dec/18
Mexico 8.25 Dec/18
Russia 7.75 Dec/18
South Africa 6.75 Dec/18
Brazil 6.50 Dec/18
India 6.50 Dec/18
Indonesia 6.00 Dec/18
China 4.35 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Dec/18
United States 2.50 Dec/18
Singapore 1.76 Dec/18
Canada 1.75 Jan/19
South Korea 1.75 Dec/18
Australia 1.50 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.75 Dec/18
Euro Area 0.00 Dec/18
France 0.00 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Italy 0.00 Dec/18
Netherlands 0.00 Dec/18
Spain 0.00 Dec/18
Japan -0.10 Dec/18
Switzerland -0.75 Dec/18


Related

Latest