Italy’s manufacturing confidence index decreased to 98.8 in September 2019 from a revised 99.6 in the previous month and below market expectations of 100.0. That was the fourth consecutive decline in morale and the lowest reading since October 2014, due to a deterioration in orders level (-17.8 vs -16.7 in August) and output outlook (3.7 vs 4.9). Stocks of inventories were unchanged (at 4.1). The composite business morale index, combining surveys of the manufacturing, retail, construction and services sectors, declined to 98.5 from 98.8 in August to register its lowest level since February this year. Business Confidence in Italy averaged 102.27 Index Points from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 121.52 Index Points in February of 1995 and a record low of 71.50 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Italy is expected to be 99.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Italy to stand at 102.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Business Confidence is projected to trend around 104.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.