Negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose by 2.95% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.89% in the previous quarter, signaling a pickup in pay growth but remaining well below the 5.4% peak seen in 2024. The rebound supports the ECB’s view that there is no immediate need to cut interest rates further, as wage dynamics remain consistent with a gradual easing in inflation pressures. After keeping its deposit rate at 2% for a fifth consecutive meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized close monitoring of salaries given their impact on services inflation, which remains above 3%. The ECB expects inflation to stabilize around its 2% target as wage growth moderates, though it sees the risk of slower wage easing as an upside inflation threat. At the same time, policymakers are wary of an excessive slowdown in pay, with Euro Area inflation having fallen to 1.7% in January and projected to stay near or slightly below 2% in the coming years. source: European Central Bank

Negotiated Wage Growth In the Euro Area increased to 2.95 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 1.89 percent in the third quarter of 2025. Negotiated Wage Growth in Euro area averaged 2.53 percent from 1992 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 7.14 percent in the first quarter of 1992 and a record low of 1.13 percent in the third quarter of 2021. This page includes a chart with historical data for Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth. Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2026.

Negotiated Wage Growth In the Euro Area increased to 2.95 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 1.89 percent in the third quarter of 2025. Negotiated Wage Growth in Euro area is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2027 and 2.00 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-11-21 10:00 AM
Negotiated Wage Growth
Q3 1.87% 4.01% 3.4%
2026-02-20 10:00 AM
Negotiated Wage Growth
Q4 2.95% 1.89% 2.0%
2026-05-22 09:00 AM
Negotiated Wage Growth
Q1 2.95% 2.7%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Employed Persons 153.73 153.81 Million Sep 2025
Negotiated Wage Growth 2.95 1.89 percent Dec 2025


Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth
In the Euro Area, the Negotiated Wage Growth indicator refers to the weighted average of the national year-on-year growth rates of collectively agreed wages. It is designed to capture the outcome of collective bargaining processes and to provide a timely indicator of possible wage pressures (without the effect of wage drift, i.e. the difference between negotiated and actual wages). The data are based on the most suitable and timely available country data (a mixture of monthly and quarterly series): monthly data are available for seven countries (Germany, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Slovenia, representing 69% of the euro area) and quarterly data for three countries (Belgium, France, Finland, representing 29% of the euro area).
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.95 1.89 7.14 1.13 1992 - 2025 percent Quarterly
NSA

News Stream
Eurozone Negotiated Wage Growth Quickens in Q4
Negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose by 2.95% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.89% in the previous quarter, signaling a pickup in pay growth but remaining well below the 5.4% peak seen in 2024. The rebound supports the ECB’s view that there is no immediate need to cut interest rates further, as wage dynamics remain consistent with a gradual easing in inflation pressures. After keeping its deposit rate at 2% for a fifth consecutive meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized close monitoring of salaries given their impact on services inflation, which remains above 3%. The ECB expects inflation to stabilize around its 2% target as wage growth moderates, though it sees the risk of slower wage easing as an upside inflation threat. At the same time, policymakers are wary of an excessive slowdown in pay, with Euro Area inflation having fallen to 1.7% in January and projected to stay near or slightly below 2% in the coming years.
2026-02-20
Eurozone Negotiated Wage Growth Picks Up in Q2
Negotiated wages in the Euro Area rose by 3.95% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.46% in the previous quarter, complicating the European Central Bank’s path on interest rates. The ECB has stressed that easing inflation to its 2% target depends on slower pay gains and cooling price pressures in services, where inflation remains stuck near 3%. While the Bundesbank noted a strong rise in German wages this quarter, it also expects moderation ahead as inflation eases and the economy stays weak. The ECB’s own pay tracker points to softer wage growth into next year, offering some reassurance. Still, the recent jump underscores why policymakers remain cautious about cutting rates further. Markets widely expect the ECB to keep its deposit rate at 2% in September, continuing a pause after a year of reductions, though some officials argue additional cuts should remain an option.
2025-08-22
Eurozone Negotiated Wage Growth Lowest in 3 Years
Negotiated wages in the Euro Area increased by 2.38% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, slowing sharply from 4.12% in the previous quarter. This marked the smallest increase since Q4 2021, supporting the European Central Bank’s view that wage-driven inflation pressures are easing. The slowdown in pay growth bolsters the case for further interest rate cuts, with the ECB expected to reduce rates again next month. Services inflation, which is heavily influenced by wages, rose 4% in April, but overall inflation held steady at 2.2%. The European Commission expects inflation to fall to 2% by mid-2025 and dip below that in 2026. Recent wage agreements suggest workers are struggling to secure large pay hikes, with Germany’s public sector agreeing to a 5.8% raise spread over two years. An ECB wage tracker also points to further moderation later this year.
2025-05-23