Industrial production in Japan rose by 0.7 percent month-over-month in February 2019, less than the preliminary figure of a 1.4 percent gain but reversing from a downwardly revised 2.5 percent fall in January. Output rebounded for iron & steel (1.1% vs -4.2% in January); fabricated metals (3.5% vs -3%); production machinery (5.5% vs -8%); business-oriented machinery (6.2% vs -4.4%); electrical machinery (5.6% vs -9%); information and communication equipment (1.9% vs -12.2%); transport equipment (2.5% vs -2.5%); motor vehicles (3.3% vs -3.1%); and plastics (2.4% vs -2.3%). In contrast, there were fall in production of non-ferrous metal (-2% vs -3.5%); general-purpose machinery (-0.1% vs -5.3%); electric parts & devices (-4.9% vs -7.5%); chemicals (-3.6% vs 1.2%); and petroleum & coal products (-1.4% vs 2%). On a yearly basis, industrial output fell 1.1 percent in February, after a 0.7 percent rise in January. Industrial Production Mom in Japan averaged 0.40 percent from 1953 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in May of 2011 and a record low of -16.50 percent in March of 2011.
Industrial Production Mom in Japan is expected to be -0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Japan to stand at -0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.