Industrial production in Japan dropped 0.1 percent month-on-month in December 2018, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and after a decline of 1 percent in November. The industries that mainly contributed to a decrease were production machinery (-3.5 percent vs 2.8 percent in November); chemicals (-1.2 percent vs 1.6 percent); and electronic parts and devices (-2.6 percent vs -1.7 percent). In contrast, increases were seen in general-purpose and business oriented machinery (4.9 percent vs -11.0 percent); motor vehicles (1.1 percent vs 0.2 percent); and electrical machinery, and Information and communication electronics equipment (1.3 percent vs -1.7 percent). On an annual basis, output fell 1.9 percent in December, after a 1.5 percent rise in November. Industrial Production Mom in Japan averaged 0.41 percent from 1953 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in May of 2011 and a record low of -16.50 percent in March of 2011.
Industrial Production Mom in Japan is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Japan to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.