Indonesia posted a trade surplus of USD 0.085 billion in August 2019, compared to a USD 0.95 billion gap in the same month a year earlier but below market consensus of a USD 0.19 billion surplus. Exports fell 9.99 percent, led by oil and gas (-38.52 percent) and non-oil and gas products (-7.18 percent); while imports dropped at a faster 15.60 percent, due to oil and gas (-46.47 percent) and non-oil and gas products (-8.77 percent). Considering the first eight months of the year, the trade deficit narrowed sharply to USD 1.81 billion from USD 4.16 billion in the same period of 2018. Balance of Trade in Indonesia averaged 730.27 USD Million from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4641.92 USD Million in December of 2006 and a record low of -2329.13 USD Million in July of 2013.

Balance of Trade in Indonesia is expected to be 500.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Indonesia to stand at -800.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 300.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Indonesia Balance of Trade
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-06-24 04:00 AM Balance of Trade May $0.21B $-2.5B $-1.38B $-1.4B
2019-07-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Jun $0.2B $0.20B $0.69B $-1.2B
2019-08-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Jul $-0.06B $0.3B $-0.42B $-1.7B
2019-09-16 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Aug $0.085B $-0.064B $0.19B $0.1B
2019-10-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Sep $0.085B $ 1.5B
2019-11-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Oct $-1.3B
2019-12-16 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Nov $-1.8B



Indonesia Trade Balance Swings to Surplus in August

Indonesia posted a trade surplus USD 0.085 billion in August 2019, swinging from a SD 0.95 billion gap in the same month a year earlier but below market consensus of USD 0.19 billion surplus, as exports fell less than imports.

Exports from Indonesia dropped 9.99 percent from a year earlier to USD 14.28 billion in August 2019, worse than market consensus of a 6 percent decline and after a marginally revised 5.10 percent fall in the prior month. It was the ninth straight month of decrease in exports, as sales of oil and gas tumbled by 39.52 percent to USD 0.88 billion and those of non-oil and gas products dropped by 7.18 percent to USD 13.40 billion. 

Compared to the previous month, exports dropped 7.60 percent, as sales oil and gas plunged 45.48 percent and those of non-oil and gas products declined 3.20 percent. By categories, outbound shipments decreased for mineral fuel (-8.23 percent); rubber and rubber goods (-11.74 percent); electric machinery/equipment (-8.19 percent); footwear (-12.08 percent); and chemical products (-18.53 percent). By contrast, sales increased for jewelery (25.31 percent); tin (64.65 percent); iron and steel products (35.22 percent); inorganic chemicals (55.47 percent), and animal/vegetable fats and oils (1.17 percent).
 
Sales fell to: Japan (-3.29 percent); China (-0.45 percent); Italy (-6.68 percent); Malaysia (-9.71 percent); Thailand (-11.09 percent); Germany (-8.09 percent); India (-11.93 percent); Taiwan (-0.55 percent); the Netherlands (-28.26 percent); Australia (-20.62 percent), and South Korea (-10.25 percent). Meanwhile, outbound shipment rose to Singapore (20.84 percent); the US (0.48 percent).

Imports slumped 15.60 percent from a year earlier to USD 14.20 billion in August, after a marginally revised 15.19 percent plunge in the prior month and missing market consensus of 12.9 percent drop. Purchases of oil and gas tumbled 46.47 percent from a year earlier to USD 1.63 billion while those of non-oil and gas declined 8.77 percent to USD 12.56 billion. 

Compared to the prior month, imports fell 8.53 percent, with purchases of non-oil and gas dropped 8.76 percent and those of oil and gas went down by 6.73 percent. Imports declined for all categories: raw material (-8.17 percent); capital goods (-10.93 percent); and consumption goods (-6.71 percent). Among major trading partners, imports shrank from: China (-8.75 percent); the US (-6.09 percent); Japan (-2.85 percent); South Korea (-7.14 percent); Thailand (-3.86 percent); Italy (-48.20 percent); Malaysia (-17.52 percent); Taiwan (-6.37 percent); Germany (-29.90 percent); Singapore (-7.99 percent); and Australia (-2.53 percent). Meantime, imports increased from the Netherlands (54.33 percent); India (6.63 percent).

Considering the first eight months of the year, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 1.81 billion, compared with a deficit of USD 4.15 billion in the same period of 2018.
 





Statistics Indonesia l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com
9/16/2019 5:26:06 AM



Indonesia Trade Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Balance of Trade 85.10 -64.29 4641.92 -2329.13 USD Million [+]
Current Account -8442.80 -6966.00 3795.00 -10125.60 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.00 -1.60 4.80 -6.80 percent [+]
Imports 14195.20 15518.48 18297.15 21.00 USD Million [+]
Exports 14280.30 15454.19 18647.83 30.00 USD Million [+]
External Debt 391827.59 387592.08 391827.59 119594.10 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 106.44 105.69 117.70 77.43 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 104.90 87.20 112.00 35.40 IDR Trillion [+]
Remittances 2898.41 2784.40 2898.41 1202.00 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1483792.00 1454141.00 1547231.00 548821.00 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.54 78.50 96.45 73.09 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 756.00 704.00 1720.00 704.00 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.54 4.55 6.55 3.92 [+]
Weapons Sales 15.00 94.00 94.00 1.00 USD Million [+]

Exports by Country  |   Exports by Category  |   Imports by Country  |   Imports by Category



Indonesia Balance of Trade

Since the 1970’s Indonesia has been recording consistent trade surpluses due to robust exports growth. However, from 2012 to 2014 the country started recording trade deficits, as exports shrank due to slowdown in the global economy and fall in commodity prices. In 2015, trade balance swang again to surplus due to almost 20 percent fall in imports. In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Thailand, Japan, Germany and South Korea. Indonesia records trade surpluses mainly with India, United States, and Malaysia. . This page provides the latest reported value for - Indonesia Balance of Trade - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Indonesia Balance of Trade - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
85.10 -64.29 4641.92 -2329.13 1960 - 2019 USD Million Monthly




Country Last Previous
Argentina 951.00 Jul/19
Australia 7268.00 Jul/19
Brazil 3280.00 Aug/19
Canada -1124.40 Jul/19
China 348.30 Aug/19
Euro Area 24789.70 Jul/19
France -4607.00 Jul/19
Germany 21449.00 Jul/19
India -13450.00 Aug/19
Indonesia 85.10 Aug/19
Italy 7630.87 Jul/19
Japan -136.30 Aug/19
Mexico -1117.00 Jul/19
Netherlands 4127.00 Jul/19
Russia 11224.00 Jul/19
Saudi Arabia 131636.00 Mar/19
Singapore 3787.85 Aug/19
South Africa -2880.82 Jul/19
South Korea 1723.00 Aug/19
Spain -1532700.00 Jun/19
Switzerland 1152.71 Aug/19
Turkey -3191.93 Jul/19
United Kingdom -219.00 Jul/19
United States -53989.00 Jul/19


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