Core machinery orders in Japan, which exclude those of ships and electrical equipment, remained unchanged in November 2018, after a 7.6 percent jump in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 3.5 percent increase. Manufacturing orders declined 6.4 percent percent (vs +12.3 percent in October), mainly dragged by sharp contractions in food & beverage (-44.1 percent vs +170.6 percent) and non-ferrous metals (-60.6 percent vs +173.2 percent). Also, petroleum & coal products advanced at a softer 83.5 percent after a 490.2 percent surge in the previous month. Additionally, non-manufacturing orders rose by 2.5 percent following a 4.5 percent increase. Year-on-year, core machinery orders rose 0.8 percent, slowing from a 4.5 percent gain in the previous month but above market consensus of 0.4 percent. Machinery Orders in Japan averaged 0.27 percent from 1987 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 25.50 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -18.30 percent in September of 2018.
Machinery Orders in Japan is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Machinery Orders in Japan to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Machinery Orders is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.