Core machinery orders in Japan, which exclude those of ships and electrical equipment, declined 6.6 percent from a month earlier in July 2019, compared to market consensus of a 9.9 percent drop. Non-manufacturing orders fell a sharp 15.6 percent after surging 30.5 percent in the previous month. Meanwhile, manufacturing orders rebounded 5.4 percent after declining 1.7 percent, as food & beverages rebounded 32.1 percent after a 5.8 percent fall, and iron & steel rebounded 22.7 percent after a 2.1 percent drop. In contrast, textiles decreased 12.9 percent, but fell at a much softer pace compared to the 49.2 percent plunge recorded in June. Year-on-year, core machinery orders edged up 0.3 percent after unexpectedly rising by 12.5 percent, once again beating market expectations of a 4.5 percent fall. Machinery Orders in Japan averaged 0.28 percent from 1987 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 25.50 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -17 percent in September of 2018.
Machinery Orders in Japan is expected to be -1.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Machinery Orders in Japan to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Machinery Orders is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.