Canada Inflation Rate

The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 2.4% in December of 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month, the highest in three months, and firmly above market expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. The result contrasted slightly with the Bank of Canada's expectations that CPI inflation would remain around the 2% threshold in the near-term. The acceleration reflected base effects from the temporary GST and HST break introduced in December 2024, triggering higher inflation rates for food purchased from restaurants (8.5% vs 3.3% in November), alcoholic beverages from stores (5.6% vs 3%), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (7.5% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for shelter (2.1% vs 2.3%) and prices fell for transportation (-0.5% vs 0.7%). Consequently, the median core inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the BoC as a gauge for underlying price growth, slowed to a one-year low of 2.5%.

The headline inflation rate in Canada held at 2.2% in November of 2025, unchanged from October, below expectations of 2.3%, and still loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada’s baseline scenario. Gasoline prices fell 7.8% year-on-year, easing from the 9.4% decline in October as refinery disruptions pushed prices higher on a monthly basis. Food inflation reaccelerated, with prices for food purchased from stores rising 4.7% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since late 2023, driven by higher prices for fresh fruit and other food preparations. Price growth also eased for shelter, as rent inflation slowed to 4.7% from 5.2% in October. In the meantime, cellular service prices jumped 12.7% year-on-year, extending their rebound amid fewer industry-wide promotions. Meanwhile, core inflation remained firm at 2.6% for a third consecutive month, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures despite cooling in select service categories.

The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.2% in October of 2025 from 2.4% in the previous month, loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada's baseline scenario. Gasoline prices sank by 9.4% from the previous year, picking up from the 4.1% deflation rate last month as the persistent view of an oversupplied global crude oil market pressured prices in the sector. Consequently, transportation inflation slowed to 0.7% from 1.7%. Price growth also eased for food (3.4% vs 3.8% in September) due to lower price growth for food preparations (3.2%), while inflation also eased for shelter (2.5% vs 2.6%). In the meantime, costs of cellular services jumped by 7.7% to record their first increase in over two years amid price hikes by several major wireless providers. Inflation also rose for mortgage insurance (6.8%) and car insurance (7.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core inflation rate, which is closely tracked by the BoC, inched down to 3%.