The annual inflation rate in Canada stood at 1.9 percent in September 2019, its lowest level since March, unchanged from August and below market expectations of 2.1 percent. Price growth was held back by a further decline in gasoline prices. Inflation Rate in Canada averaged 3.13 percent from 1915 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 21.60 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -17.80 percent in June of 1921. source: Statistics Canada

Inflation Rate in Canada is expected to be 2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in Canada to stand at 2.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Canada Inflation Rate
Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-07-17 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Jun 2% 2.4% 2% 2.2%
2019-08-21 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Jul 2% 2% 1.7% 1.8%
2019-09-18 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Aug 1.9% 2% 2% 1.9%
2019-10-16 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Sep 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2%
2019-11-20 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Oct 1.9% 2.1% 2%
2019-12-18 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Nov 1.8%



Canada Inflation Rate Steady at 5-Month Low of 1.9%

The annual inflation rate in Canada stood at 1.9 percent in September 2019, its lowest level since March, unchanged from August and below market expectations of 2.1 percent. Price growth was held back by a further decline in gasoline prices.

Year-on-year, inflation was steady for transportation (at 1.4 percent) and household operations, furnishings and equipment (0.5 percent). Meantime, cost slowed for shelter (2.3 percent vs 2.4 percent); recreation, education and reading (0.9 percent vs 2.0 percent) and alcoholic beverages, tobacco and recreational cannabis (0.7 percent vs 0.9 percent). On the other hand, prices advanced quicker for food (3.7 percent vs 3.6 percent), namely meat (5.5 percent vs 4.8 percent), as prices for fresh or frozen beef grew faster in September (4.7 percent vs 2.0 percent); clothing & footwear (2.6 percent vs 1.1 percent) and health & personal care (1.3 percent vs 0.9 percent).

Regarding special aggregates of the CPI, prices of services slowed (2.2 percent vs 2.6 percent) and those of energy continued to decline (-4.6 percent vs -4.7 percent), amid falling prices of gasoline (-10 percent vs -10.2 percent in August). The decrease in gas prices was partially attributable to continued low global demand for oil, as well as the switch by refineries from summer-blend gasoline to the less expensive winter blend. In contrast, cost of goods advanced faster (1.3 percent vs 0.9 percent), namely durable (1.9 percent vs 1.6 percent); semi-durable goods (2.0 percent vs 0.6 percent) and non-durable goods (0.9 percent vs 0.6 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased 0.4 percent, compared to a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month and market estimates of a 0.2 percent drop. Main downward pressure came from transportation (-2.1 percent) and recreation, education and reading (-1.5 percent), in particular tuition fees.

BoC's annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items, stood at 1.9 percent in September 2019, its lowest level since April, matching August's reading and in line with market expectations.


Statistics Canada | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com
10/16/2019 3:14:01 PM



Canada Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.90 21.60 -17.80 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.40 -0.10 2.60 -1.30 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 136.20 136.80 137.00 12.10 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 134.50 134.40 134.50 61.70 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 1.90 5.40 0.00 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.20 109.00 110.20 11.80 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.40 117.50 119.70 15.60 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.30 -1.00 21.10 -7.20 percent [+]
Export Prices 110.90 110.80 113.90 59.50 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 120.30 120.40 8964.00 73.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.70 3.60 20.18 -7.14 percent [+]
Wholesale Prices 104.30 104.30 137.30 40.40 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 144.80 144.60 144.80 39.10 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 140.30 143.30 144.20 10.90 Index Points [+]


Canada Inflation Rate

In Canada, the most important categories in the CPI basket are Shelter (27.5 percent of the total weight) and Transportation (19.3 percent). Food accounts for 16.1 percent; Household Operations, Furnishings and Equipment for 11.8 percent; Recreation, Education and Reading for 11.8 percent; Clothing and Footwear for 5.7 percent; Health and Personal Care for 5 percent; Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Products for the remaining 3 percent. The CPI basket is reviewed every four years on the basis of household surveys. The current weights are based on spending patterns in 2009. This page provides - Canada Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Canada Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.90 1.90 21.60 -17.80 1915 - 2019 percent Monthly
2002=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 53.50 Sep/19 53.6
Australia 1.70 Sep/19 1.6
Brazil 2.54 Oct/19 2.89
Canada 1.90 Sep/19 1.9
China 3.80 Oct/19 3
Euro Area 0.70 Oct/19 0.8
France 0.80 Oct/19 0.9
Germany 1.10 Oct/19 1.2
India 4.62 Oct/19 3.99
Indonesia 3.13 Oct/19 3.39
Italy 0.30 Oct/19 0.3
Japan 0.20 Sep/19 0.3
Mexico 3.02 Oct/19 3
Netherlands 2.70 Oct/19 2.6
Russia 3.80 Oct/19 4
Saudi Arabia -0.70 Sep/19 -1.1
Singapore 0.50 Sep/19 0.5
South Africa 4.10 Sep/19 4.3
South Korea 0.00 Oct/19 -0.4
Spain 0.10 Oct/19 0.1
Switzerland -0.30 Oct/19 0.1
Turkey 8.55 Oct/19 9.26
United Kingdom 1.50 Oct/19 1.7
United States 1.80 Oct/19 1.7


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