Industrial production in Brazil went up 0.2 percent year-on-year in October 2018, recovering slightly from a 1.8 percent decline in the prior month and missing market expectations of a 1.2 percent gain. It is the first increase in industrial activity after three consecutive declines, mainly boosted by production of mining products (3.1% vs -0.7%), machinery & equipment (8.8% vs -11.4%), motor vehicles and trailers (3.0% vs -5.2%) and beverages (8.6% vs -9.4%). In contrast, output fell particularly for food (-2.0% vs -1.5%), including sugar; steel products (-3.7% vs 6.2%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.2% vs -1.7%). Year-on-year, industrial production rose 1.1 percent, recovering from an upwardly revised 2.2 percent fall in September but below market consensus of a 2.3 percent gain. Year-to-date, industrial production grew 1.8 percent compared to the same period of 2017. Industrial Production Mom in Brazil averaged 0.14 percent from 1985 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 25.10 percent in May of 1990 and a record low of -24.40 percent in April of 1990.
Industrial Production Mom in Brazil is expected to be 2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Brazil to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.