Turkey’s industrial production declined 7.3 percent year-on-year in January 2019, after contracting 10 percent in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 7.6 percent drop. Output continued to fall for: intermediate goods (-10.9 percent vs -15.3 percent); capital goods (-8.1 percent vs -9.1 percent); non-durable consumer goods (-3.5 percent vs -6 percent); and energy (-1 percent vs -1.2 percent). By contrast, production of durable consumer goods rose 0.9 percent, rebounding from a 9.5 percent slump in the previous period. On a monthly basis, industrial production increased 1 percent in January, reversing a 1.3 percent fall in December. Industrial Production in Turkey averaged 5.22 percent from 1986 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 27.30 percent in October of 2005 and a record low of -21.20 percent in February of 2009.
Industrial Production in Turkey is expected to be -2.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Turkey to stand at 2.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Industrial Production is projected to trend around 3.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.