Turkey’s industrial production fell 5.1 percent year-on-year in February 2019, following a downwardly revised 7.4 percent decline in the previous month and below market expectations of a 7.6 percent decrease. It was the smallest fall in industrial output since September, as production dropped less for intermediate (-9.7 percent from -11 percent in January); capital (-7.8 percent from -8 percent); and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5 percent from -3.8 percent). Also, energy output rebounded (4.5 percent from -1 percent) and durable consumer goods increased further (5 percent from 0.7 percent). On a monthly basis, industrial production advanced 1.3 percent, after a 1 percent gain in the prior month. Industrial Production in Turkey averaged 5.19 percent from 1986 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 27.30 percent in October of 2005 and a record low of -21.20 percent in February of 2009.
Industrial Production in Turkey is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Turkey to stand at 2.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Industrial Production is projected to trend around 3.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.