Turkey’s industrial production decreased by 2.7 percent year-on-year in September 2018, following a downwardly revised 1.6 percent growth in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 2 percent fall. It was the first decline in industrial production since September 2016, as output dropped for both manufacturing (-3.2 percent vs 1.1 percent in August) and electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply (-1.3 percent vs 2.9 percent). Additionally, mining & quarrying output slowed to 5 percent from 6.4 percent. On a monthly basis, industrial production contracted 2.7 percent in September, following a decline of 1.3 percent in August. Industrial Production in Turkey averaged 5.36 percent from 1986 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 27.30 percent in October of 2005 and a record low of -21.20 percent in February of 2009.
Industrial Production in Turkey is expected to be -2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Turkey to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Turkey Industrial Production is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.