China's producer price index increased by 0.4 percent year-on-year in March 2019, accelerating from a 0.1 percent gin in February and in line with market estimates. It marked the highest producer inflation in three months amid a rebound in prices of means of production (0.3 pct vs -0.1 pct in February), with cost of processing (0.4 pct vs 0.3 pct) and extraction (4.2 pct vs 1.8 pct) increasing faster, while cost of raw materials fell much less (-0.6 pct vs -1.5 pct). In addition, consumer goods inflation edged up to 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent, of which daily use goods (0.3 pct vs 0.2 pct); food production (1.2 pct vs 0.8 pct), and clothing (1.7 pct vs 1.6 pct), while prices fell further for durable goods (-0.7 pct vs -0.6 pct). On a monthly basis, producer prices went up 0.1 percent in March, after a 0.1 percent drop in February, marking the first monthly rise in five months. Considering January to March, producer prices rose 0.2 percent compared to the same period 2018. Producer Prices Change in China averaged 1.29 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.47 percent in July of 1995 and a record low of -8.20 percent in July of 2009.
Producer Prices Change in China is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Producer Prices Change in China to stand at 2.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Producer Prices Change is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.