Italy’s industrial production decreased 0.8 percent from a month earlier in December of 2018, following an upwardly revised 1.7 percent fall in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.4 percent gain. Output fell for consumer goods (-2.9 percent from -1 percent in November) and energy goods (-1.5 percent from 1 percent) while production was unchanged for investment goods (from -1.5 percent) and rebounded slightly for intermediate goods (0.1 percent from -2.4 percent). On a year-on-year basis, output was down 5.5 percent in December, more than a 2.6 percent drop in November. It was the steepest annual drop since December of 2012. Considering the fourth quarter of 2018, industrial activity declined 1.1 percent from the previous three-month period, the largest quarterly decline since 2014. Industrial Production Mom in Italy averaged 0.19 percent from 1960 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 13.50 percent in December of 1972 and a record low of -14.80 percent in January of 1973.
Industrial Production Mom in Italy is expected to be 0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Italy to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.