China's industrial production increased by 4.4 percent year-on-year in August 2019, easing from a 4.8 percent rise in the previous month and missing market consensus of 5.2 percent. This was the smallest gain in industrial output since February 2002, on the back of an escalating trade dispute with the US and sluggish domestic demand. Production growth slowed in manufacturing (4.3% vs 4.5% in July), mining (3.7% vs 6.6%), and utilities (5.9% vs 6.9%). By industry, production advanced at a softer pace for textiles (0.1% vs 1.2%), chemicals (1.2% vs 3.8%), non-metal minerals (8.1% vs 8.7%), communication (4.7% vs 6.1%), transport equipment (7.8% vs 15.7%), and power equipment (5.1% vs 6.5%). Meanwhile, output rose further for both ferrous metals (10.4% vs 10%), and machinery (10% vs 7.6%). From January to August 2019, industrial production grew 5.6 percent. Industrial Production in China averaged 11.98 percent from 1990 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 29.40 percent in August of 1994 and a record low of -21.10 percent in January of 1990.
Industrial Production in China is expected to be 5.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in China to stand at 5.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Industrial Production is projected to trend around 5.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.