The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent on December 13th and confirmed the end of its €2.6 trillion bond purchase scheme later this month, while it will keep reinvesting cash from maturing bonds for an extended period of time. Policymakers also reiterated they expect key interest rates to remain at record low levels at least through the summer of 2019. Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.96 percent from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0 percent in March of 2016.

Interest Rate in Euro Area is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Euro Area to stand at 0.25 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Interest Rate is projected to trend around 0.75 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Euro Area Interest Rate
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Forecast Data Chart
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-07-26 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0.0%
2018-09-13 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0.0%
2018-10-25 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0.0%
2018-12-13 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-01-17 11:00 AM ECB Lautenschläger Speech
2019-01-24 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0%
2019-01-24 01:30 PM ECB Press Conference



ECB Warns of Economic Risks, Uncertain Outlook

ECB officials agreed that the risks to the Euro Area outlook could still be assessed as broadly balanced, but that the balance of risks was moving to the downside owing to the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial volatility, minutes of the ECB's December meeting showed. Policymakers also suggested revisiting the contribution of TLTRO to the monetary policy stance moving ahead.

Excerpts of the account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 12-13 December 2018:

Members discussed in greater detail the risks to the euro area growth outlook. Uncertainties and risks related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial volatility had remained prominent. It was widely considered that uncertainty persisted or had increased, with risks to activity moving to the downside. It was also argued that, even though certain downside risks – regarding trade tensions, emerging markets, US monetary policy and developments in sovereign bond markets in the euro area – had receded, the continually changing nature of risks would sustain – or even increase – general uncertainty.

In this context, it was underlined that the situation remained fragile and fluid, as risks could quickly regain prominence or new uncertainties could emerge. The situation in emerging markets was cited as an example, with vulnerability related to some countries becoming less of a concern (notably with Turkey and Argentina stabilising), while vulnerability related to others was already looming. Other examples were the frequently changing state of discussion on trade issues and the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Against this background, it was argued that the current environment could be described as one of “risk rotation” in a state of generally heightened uncertainty.

As regards the balance of risks, on the one hand, the view was expressed that a case could be made for assessing risks to activity as tilted to the downside. Prevailing uncertainty appeared to have affected confidence, although the latter was coming down from high levels. Reference was made to a recent deterioration in business confidence, with PMI survey data related to production and exports again disappointing. This was seen as affecting business investment and cautioned against being complacent about downside risks to growth. Regarding the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, it was noted that there had now been three successive downward revisions to the short-term euro area baseline growth outlook over the past half-year. The latest revisions essentially reflected the incorporation of new data regarding the short term but had no bearing on the growth path for the remainder of the projection horizon. Therefore, it was argued that, unless all shocks affecting the latest figures were considered to be of a purely temporary nature, this should have moved the balance of risks to the downside.

On the other hand it was argued that, while there had recently been somewhat more negative news than positive news, this had been incorporated in the downward revision to the baseline Eurosystem staff projection, such that the balance of risks pertaining to this new projection could be maintained as fairly balanced. It was also remarked that the assessment of still balanced risks to growth was supported by the emergence of new upside risks, namely a further decline in oil prices since the cut-off date for the projections and the likelihood of more stimulus coming from fiscal measures. Against this background, caution was expressed against moving the balance of risks to the downside.


ECB | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/10/2019 1:09:22 PM



Euro Area Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 8248937.00 8199412.00 8248937.00 444116.00 EUR Million [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.33 5.39 -0.39 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 11671079.00 11627536.00 11671079.00 1070365.00 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12305126.00 12268153.00 12305126.00 1097239.00 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 67.33 66.37 70.57 34.91 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4669003.00 4674919.00 4674919.00 692641.00 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 11111772.00 11089860.00 11111772.00 3241298.00 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.40 3.75 -0.40 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 5.75 0.25 percent [+]
Loan Growth 3.30 3.20 9.90 -0.40 percent [+]


Euro Area Interest Rate

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate. . This page provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Euro Area Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 1998 - 2018 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 57.61 Jan/19
Turkey 24.00 Jan/19
Mexico 8.25 Dec/18
Russia 7.75 Dec/18
South Africa 6.75 Dec/18
Brazil 6.50 Dec/18
India 6.50 Dec/18
Indonesia 6.00 Dec/18
China 4.35 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Dec/18
United States 2.50 Dec/18
Singapore 1.76 Dec/18
Canada 1.75 Jan/19
South Korea 1.75 Dec/18
Australia 1.50 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.75 Dec/18
Euro Area 0.00 Dec/18
France 0.00 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Italy 0.00 Dec/18
Netherlands 0.00 Dec/18
Spain 0.00 Dec/18
Japan -0.10 Dec/18
Switzerland -0.75 Dec/18


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