India's retail price inflation rate climbed to 4.62 percent year-on-year in October 2019, the highest in over a year, from the previous month's 3.99 percent and above market expectations of 4.25 percent. Inflation rose above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent for the first time since July 2018. Inflation Rate in India averaged 5.98 percent from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.17 percent in November of 2013 and a record low of 1.54 percent in June of 2017. source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

Inflation Rate in India is expected to be 3.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in India to stand at 3.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the India Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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India Inflation Rate
Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-08-13 12:00 PM Inflation Rate YoY Jul 3.15% 3.18% 3.2% 3.3%
2019-09-12 12:00 PM Inflation Rate YoY Aug 3.21% 3.15% 3.3% 3%
2019-10-14 12:00 PM Inflation Rate YoY Sep 3.99% 3.28% 3.7% 3.5%
2019-11-13 12:00 PM Inflation Rate YoY Oct 4.62% 3.99% 4.25% 4.1%
2019-12-14 12:00 PM Inflation Rate YoY Nov 4.62% 4.2%



India Inflation Rate Jumps to 1-1/2-Year High

India's retail price inflation rate climbed to 4.62 percent year-on-year in October 2019, the highest in over a year, from the previous month's 3.99 percent and above market expectations of 4.25 percent. Inflation rose above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent for the first time since July 2018, following recent cuts in interest rates.

Food prices rose 7.89 percent in October (vs 5.11 percent in September), the largest annual gain since July 2016. Additionally, the food & beverages index went up 6.93 percent, with main upward pressure coming from: vegetables (26.10 percent) as onion and tomato prices jumped due to unseasonal rains, disruption in supply chain and acquisition restrictions on traders; pulses & products (11.72 percent); meat & fish (9.75 percent); egg (6.26 percent); fruits (4.08 percent); spices (3.86 percent); and milk & products (3.10 percent).

Among non-food products, prices increased for housing (4.58 percent); miscellaneous (3.45 percent); pan, tobacco and intoxicants (3.92 percent); and clothing and footwear (1.65 percent). Meantime, the prices of fuel & light fell 2.02 percent.

The corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas were 4.29 percent and 5.11 percent, compared with September's figures of 3.24 percent and 4.78 percent respectively.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were 0.96 percent higher in October.


MOSPI | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/13/2019 1:24:14 PM



India Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 4.62 3.99 12.17 1.54 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 147.20 145.80 147.20 86.81 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 134.80 129.70 146.50 100.00 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 122.20 121.30 122.20 62.44 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.16 0.33 34.68 -11.31 percent [+]
Export Prices 376.00 372.00 376.00 100.00 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 513.00 523.00 523.00 100.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.89 5.11 14.72 -2.65 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 7.90 8.10 16.00 7.90 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.96 0.55 2.25 -1.55 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 153.00 152.20 153.00 100.30 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 126.30 126.10 126.90 103.20 Index Points [+]


India Inflation Rate

In 2013, the consumer price index replaced the wholesale price index (WPI) as a main measure of inflation. In India, the most important category in the consumer price index is Food and beverages (45.86 percent of total weight), of which Cereals and products (9.67 percent), Milk and products (6.61 percent), Vegetables (6.04 percent), Prepared meals, snacks, sweets, etc. (5.55 percent), Meat and fish (3.61 percent), and Oils and fats (3.56 percent). Miscellaneous accounts for 28.32 percent, of which Transport and communication (8.59 percent), health (5.89 percent), and education (4.46 percent). Housing accounts for 10.07 percent; Fuel and light for 6.84 percent; Clothing and footwear for 6.53 percent; and Pan, tobacco and intoxicants for 2.38 percent. Consumer price changes in India can be very volatile due to dependence on energy imports, the uncertain impact of monsoon rains on its large farm sector, difficulties transporting food items to market because of its poor roads and infrastructure and high fiscal deficit. This page provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. India Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.62 3.99 12.17 1.54 2012 - 2019 percent Monthly
2012=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 53.50 Sep/19 53.6
Australia 1.70 Sep/19 1.6
Brazil 2.54 Oct/19 2.89
Canada 1.90 Sep/19 1.9
China 3.80 Oct/19 3
Euro Area 0.70 Oct/19 0.8
France 0.80 Oct/19 0.9
Germany 1.10 Oct/19 1.2
India 4.62 Oct/19 3.99
Indonesia 3.13 Oct/19 3.39
Italy 0.30 Oct/19 0.3
Japan 0.20 Sep/19 0.3
Mexico 3.02 Oct/19 3
Netherlands 2.70 Oct/19 2.6
Russia 3.80 Oct/19 4
Saudi Arabia -0.70 Sep/19 -1.1
Singapore 0.50 Sep/19 0.5
South Africa 4.10 Sep/19 4.3
South Korea 0.00 Oct/19 -0.4
Spain 0.10 Oct/19 0.1
Switzerland -0.30 Oct/19 0.1
Turkey 8.55 Oct/19 9.26
United Kingdom 1.50 Oct/19 1.7
United States 1.80 Oct/19 1.7


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