China's consumer price inflation slowed to a six-month low of 1.9 percent year-on-year in December 2018 from 2.2 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 2.1 percent. The slowdown in inflation was mainly due to non-food prices, while food inflation remained at its lowest level in three months. Inflation Rate in China averaged 5.19 percent from 1986 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 28.40 percent in February of 1989 and a record low of -2.20 percent in April of 1999.

Inflation Rate in China is expected to be 2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in China to stand at 2.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

China Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-16 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
2018-11-09 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%
2018-12-09 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%
2019-01-10 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2%
2019-02-15 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.3%
2019-03-11 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.6%
2019-04-11 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY 2.3%



China Inflation Rate Slows to 6-Month Low

China's consumer price inflation slowed to a six-month low of 1.9 percent year-on-year in December 2018 from 2.2 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 2.1 percent. The slowdown in inflation was mainly due to non-food prices, while food inflation remained at its lowest level in three months.

The politically sensitive food inflation came in at 2.5 percent in December, unchanged from the previous month's three-month low. Upward pressure came from fresh vegetables (4.2 percent vs 1.5 percent in November), fresh fruit (9.4 percent vs 13.3 percent) and eggs (0.7 percent vs 6.4 percent); while cost continued to fall for both edible oil (-0.3 percent vs -0.6 percent) and pork (-1.5 percent vs -1.1 percent). 

Non-food prices rose 1.7 percent in December, easing from a 2.1 percent increase in November, mainly due to a fall in transportation costs (-0.7 percent vs 1.6 percent) and a slowdown in health care prices (2.5 percent vs 2.6 percent) on lower oil costs and drug pricing reforms. Inflation also eased for: rent, fuel and utilities (2.2 percent vs 2.4 percent); education, culture and recreation (2.3 percent vs 2.5 percent); and household goods & services (1.4 percent vs 1.5 percent). Meanwhile, prices rose slightly faster for both clothing (1.5 percent vs 1.4 percent) and other goods and services (1.6 percent vs 1.5 percent). 

Annual core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, stood at 1.8 percent in December, unchanged from the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged in December, also missing market consensus of 0.3 percent gain and following a 0.3 percent fall in November.

Considering 2018 full year, the inflation rate rose to 2.1 percent from 1.6 percent in 2017, still missing the government's target of around 3 percent.

Meantime, the producer price index in China increased 0.9 percent from a year earlier in December, much slower than a 2.7 percent rise in the previous month and missing market expectations of 1.6 percent. It was the lowest producer inflation since September 2016, as prices of means of production went up at a softer 1.0 percent (vs 3.3 percent in November), in particular raw materials (0.8 percent vs 4.6 percent), processing (0.8 percent vs 2.2 percent) and extraction (3.8 percent vs 9.2 percent). Also, consumer goods inflation edged lower to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent, of which food production (0.9 percent vs 1.1 percent), clothing (1.6 percent vs 1.5 percent) and daily use goods (0.4 percent vs 0.8 percent). Cost of consumer durable goods went up 0.2 percent (vs 0.1 percent in November). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 1.0 percent in December, after a 0.2 percent drop in November. For full 2018, the producer price index rose 3.5 percent, easing from a 6.3 percent advance in 2017.


National Bureau of Statistics of China | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
1/10/2019 9:29:23 AM


News

China Inflation Rate Slows to 4-Month Low of 2.2% in November
China's consumer price inflation slowed to 4-month low of 2.2 percent year-on-year in November 2018 from 2.5 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 2.4 percent. Food inflation hit its lowest in three months and cost of non-food increased the least in seven months.
Published on 2018-12-10

China Inflation Rate Unchanged at 7-Month High
China's consumer price inflation stood at 2.5 percent year-on-year in October 2018, unchanged from the previous month's seven-month high and in line with market expectations. A slowdown in prices of food was offset by a faster rise in cost of non-food products.
Published on 2018-11-09

China Inflation Rate Rises to 7-Month High in September
China's consumer price inflation rose to a seven-month high of 2.5 percent year-on-year in September of 2018 from 2.3 percent in the previous month and matching market consensus. Prices of food surged while cost of non-food continued to increase.
Published on 2018-10-16

China Inflation Rate Rises to 6-Month High in August
China's consumer price inflation rose to a six-month high of 2.3 percent year-on-year in August of 2018 from 2.1 percent in the previous month and slightly above market consensus of 2.2 percent. The increase was driven by higher prices of food; clothing; rent, fuel & utilities; and education, culture & recreation.
Published on 2018-09-10



China Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.20 28.40 -2.20 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 -0.30 2.60 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.90 102.20 128.40 97.80 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.80 101.80 102.50 98.40 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.80 2.50 -1.60 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 656.41 630.75 656.41 100.78 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 100.90 102.70 113.47 91.80 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.90 2.70 13.47 -8.20 percent [+]
Export Prices 109.40 107.00 111.90 90.70 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 110.40 110.90 122.70 79.60 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.50 2.50 40.20 -5.50 percent [+]


China Inflation Rate

In China, the most important components of the CPI basket are Food (31.8 percent of total weight) and Residence (17.2 percent). Recreation, Education and Culture Articles account for 13.8 percent; Transportation and Communication for 10 percent, Healthcare and Personal Articles for 9.6 percent, Clothing for 8.5 percent; Households Facilities, Articles and Services for 5.6 percent; Tobacco, Liquor and Articles for the remaining 3.5 percent. The CPI basket is reviewed every five years on the basis of household surveys. Revisions reflect new spending patterns and economic development, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Last revision took place in 2011. This page provides - China Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. China Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.90 2.20 28.40 -2.20 1986 - 2018 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
Argentina 47.10 Dec/18
Australia 1.90 Sep/18
Brazil 3.75 Dec/18
Canada 2.00 Dec/18
China 1.90 Dec/18
Euro Area 1.60 Dec/18
France 1.60 Dec/18
Germany 1.70 Dec/18
India 2.19 Dec/18
Indonesia 3.13 Dec/18
Italy 1.10 Dec/18
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Mexico 4.83 Dec/18
Netherlands 2.00 Dec/18
Russia 4.30 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 2.20 Dec/18
Singapore 0.30 Nov/18
South Africa 5.20 Nov/18
South Korea 1.30 Dec/18
Spain 1.20 Dec/18
Switzerland 0.70 Dec/18
Turkey 20.30 Dec/18
United Kingdom 2.10 Dec/18
United States 1.90 Dec/18


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