China's annual inflation rose to 4.5% in November 2019 from 3.8% in the previous month, above market expectations of 4.2%. It is the highest inflation rate since January 2012 as pork prices jumped 110% caused by a prolonged African swine fever epidemic. The government recently said it will use the reserves to provide sufficient pork supply to meat demand for China's Lunar New Year holidays in January. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4%, after a 0.9% jump in October and compared to market estimates of 0.1%. Inflation Rate in China averaged 5.13 percent from 1986 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 28.40 percent in February of 1989 and a record low of -2.20 percent in April of 1999. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Inflation Rate in China is expected to be 3.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in China to stand at 2.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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China Inflation Rate
Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-10 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY Aug 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%
2019-10-15 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY Sep 3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
2019-11-09 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY Oct 3.8% 3% 3.3% 3%
2019-12-10 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY Nov 4.5% 3.8% 4.2% 4.3%
2020-01-13 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY Dec 4.5% 4.7%
2020-02-12 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY Jan 4.4%
2020-03-09 01:30 AM Inflation Rate YoY Feb



China Inflation Rate Highest Since 2012

China's annual inflation rose to 4.5% in November 2019 from 3.8% in the previous month, above market expectations of 4.2%. It is the highest inflation rate since January 2012. Pork prices, the most popular meat in China, jumped 110% yoy as hogs have been severely reduced due to the African Swine Fever since last year. The government recently said it will use its reserves to provide sufficient meat for China's Lunar New Year holidays in January.

The politically sensitive food inflation rose to 19.1 percent in November, the highest since May 2008, from 15.5 percent in October, boosted by a ninth consecutive month of increase in pork prices (110.2 percent vs 101.3 percent). Also, cost rose further for edible oil (5 percent vs 3.3 percent), fresh vegetables (3.9 percent vs -10.2 percent), and eggs (10.1 percent vs 10.4 percent). Meantime, prices of fruits fell much faster (-6.8 percent vs -0.3 percent).

Non-food price inflation was at 1 percent in November, little-changed from 0.9 percent in October. Prices rose further for rent, fuel & utilities (0.4 percent vs 0.5 percent), healthcare (2 percent vs 2.1 percent), clothing (1.1 percent vs 1.2 percent), household goods & services (0.4 percent vs 0.6 percent), education, culture & recreation (1.7 percent vs 1.9 percent), and other goods and services (4.5 percent vs 5.5 percent). At the same time, transport and communication prices continued to drop (-2.8 percent vs -3.5 percent).  
Annual core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, edged down to 1.4 percent in November from 1.5 percent in October. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4 percent in November, after a 0.9 percet jump in October and compared to market estimates of 0.1 percent.

Meantime, China's producer price index declined by 1.4 percent year-on-year in November, following a 1.6 percent decrease in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 1.5 percent drop. Cost of means of production continued to decline (-2.5 percent vs -2.6 percent), due to raw materials (-5 percent vs -5.6 percent), processing (-1.6 percent vs -1.5 percent), and extraction (-1.4 percent vs -1.9 percent). Meanwhile, prices went up further for consumer goods (1.6 percent vs 1.4 percent), of which food production (5.4 percent vs 4.4 percent), daily use goods (0.1 percent vs 0.4 percent) and clothing (0.3 percent vs 0.6 percent), but fell faster for durable goods (-2.1 percent vs -1.8 percent). On a monthly basis, producer prices declined by 0.1 percent in November. Considering the first eleven month of the year, producer prices fell 0.3 percent compared with the same period of 2018.


Statistics China | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
12/10/2019 9:12:39 AM


News

China Inflation Rate Rises to Near 8-Year High
China's annual inflation rose to 3.8 percent in October 2019 from 3 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 3.3 percent. This was the highest inflation rate since January 2012, mainly due to persistently high pork prices following an outbreak of African swine fever.
Published on 2019-11-11

China Inflation Rate Rises to Near 6-Year High
China's annual inflation rose to 3 percent in September 2019 from 2.8 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 2.9 percent. This was the highest inflation rate since October 2013, mainly due to persistently high pork prices following an outbreak of African swine fever.
Published on 2019-10-15

China August Inflation Rate Steady at 2.8%
China's annual inflation rate was at 2.8 percent in August 2019, unchanged from the previous month and above market forecasts of 2.6 percent. It remained the highest consumer inflation rate since February 2018, driven by persistently high pork prices amid an outbreak of African swine fever.
Published on 2019-09-10

China Inflation Rate Hits 17-Month High
China's annual inflation rate rose to 2.8 percent in July 2019 from 2.7 percent in the previous month and above market estimates of 2.7 percent. That was the highest rate since February 2018 boosted by the fastest increase in food prices since January 2012, as pork prices were persistently high in the wake of an outbreak of African swine fever.
Published on 2019-08-09



China Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 4.50 3.80 28.40 -2.20 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.90 2.60 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.50 103.80 128.40 97.80 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.40 101.50 102.50 98.40 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.40 1.50 2.50 -1.60 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 873.64 646.30 873.64 100.78 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 98.60 98.40 113.47 91.80 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.40 -1.60 13.47 -8.20 percent [+]
Export Prices 102.00 103.00 116.50 90.20 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 98.60 100.50 122.70 79.60 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 19.10 15.50 40.20 -5.50 percent [+]


China Inflation Rate

In China, the most important components of the CPI basket are Food (31.8 percent of total weight) and Residence (17.2 percent). Recreation, Education and Culture Articles account for 13.8 percent; Transportation and Communication for 10 percent, Healthcare and Personal Articles for 9.6 percent, Clothing for 8.5 percent; Households Facilities, Articles and Services for 5.6 percent; Tobacco, Liquor and Articles for the remaining 3.5 percent. The CPI basket is reviewed every five years on the basis of household surveys. Revisions reflect new spending patterns and economic development, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Last revision took place in 2011. This page provides - China Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. China Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.50 3.80 28.40 -2.20 1986 - 2019 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
Argentina 50.50 Oct/19 53.5
Australia 1.70 Sep/19 1.6
Brazil 3.27 Nov/19 2.54
Canada 1.90 Oct/19 1.9
China 4.50 Nov/19 3.8
Euro Area 1.00 Nov/19 0.7
France 1.00 Nov/19 0.8
Germany 1.10 Nov/19 1.1
India 5.54 Nov/19 4.62
Indonesia 3.00 Nov/19 3.13
Italy 0.40 Nov/19 0.2
Japan 0.20 Oct/19 0.2
Mexico 2.97 Nov/19 3.02
Netherlands 2.60 Nov/19 2.7
Russia 3.50 Nov/19 3.8
Saudi Arabia -0.30 Oct/19 -0.7
Singapore 0.40 Oct/19 0.5
South Africa 3.60 Nov/19 3.7
South Korea 0.20 Nov/19 0
Spain 0.40 Nov/19 0.1
Switzerland -0.10 Nov/19 -0.3
Turkey 10.56 Nov/19 8.55
United Kingdom 1.50 Oct/19 1.7
United States 2.10 Nov/19 1.8


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