Industrial production in the United Kingdom decreased by 0.6 percent from the previous month in October of 2018, after showing no growth in September and against market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. It was the first decline in industrial activity since May, as manufacturing output fell 0.9 percent, compared to a 0.2 percent gain in the prior month, mainly driven by decreases in transport equipment (-3.2 percent); basic pharmaceutical products (-5 percent); chemicals & chemical products (-1.6 percent) and wood, paper products & printing (-1 percent). Also, production continued to decline for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-0.1 percent from -0.3 percent) and water supply, sewerage and waste management (-0.3 percent from -0.7 percent). On the other hand, output rebounded for mining & quarrying (1.8 percent from -1.6 percent). On a yearly basis, industrial output went down 0.8 percent. Industrial Production Mom in the United Kingdom averaged 0.08 percent from 1968 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 9.90 percent in March of 1972 and a record low of -8 percent in February of 1972.
Industrial Production Mom in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in the United Kingdom to stand at 0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.