The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany stood at 10.8 heading into March 2019, unchanged from the previous month's 9-month high and in line with market consensus. The income expectations sub-index was virtually unchanged from the prior month (60 vs 59.9 in February), supported by a solid job market and rising wages and despite fears of economic headwinds; while consumers' willingness to buy remained at a high level (53.6 vs 57.6). Meanwhile, the economic expectations sub-index fell for the fifth time in a row to the lowest level since March 2016 (4.2 vs 10.7) amid rising concerns about the German economy, a trade dispute between the US, China and the EU, as well as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. Consumer Confidence in Germany averaged 6.24 Index Points from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.80 Index Points in March of 2001 and a record low of -3.50 Index Points in March of 2003.
Consumer Confidence in Germany is expected to be 10.50 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in Germany to stand at 9.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany GfK Consumer Climate is projected to trend around 8.50 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.