India's trade deficit narrowed to USD 10.86 billion in September 2019 from USD 14.95 billion in the corresponding month of 2018 and below market consensus of USD 12.85 billion. Merchandise exports dropped 6.57 percent to USD 26.03 billion, mostly due to lower sales of gems & jewellery (-5.56%); engineering goods (-6.2%) and petroleum products(-18.6%). In contrast, major commodity groups posted positive growth: electronic goods (33.11%); spices (28.44%); mica, coal & other ores, minerals (16.67%); and ceramic products & glassware (11.1%). Meantime, imports fell 13.85 percent to USD 36.89 billion, as purchases went down for coal, coke & briquettes (-23.96%); petroleum, crude & products (-18.33%); pearls, precious & semi-precious stones (-17.34%) and organic & inorganic chemicals (-16.21%). Considering April-September 2019-20, the trade gap fell to USD 44.95 billion from USD 60.16 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Balance of Trade in India averaged -2645.81 USD Million from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 258.90 USD Million in March of 1977 and a record low of -20210.90 USD Million in October of 2012.
Balance of Trade in India is expected to be -15500.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in India to stand at -16200.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the India Balance of Trade is projected to trend around -14100.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.