The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 51.1 in September 2019 from a preliminary 51.0 and compared to the previous month's ten-year low of 50.3. The latest reading was the highest since April, but still signaled a modest overall improvement in manufacturing sector business conditions. The quarterly average indicated the worst performance across the sector since the same period in 2009. Manufacturing PMI in the United States is reported by Markit Economics.

Manufacturing PMI in the United States is expected to be 50.70 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in the United States to stand at 50.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 50.20 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Manufacturing PMI
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US Manufacturing PMI Revised Higher

The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 51.1 in September 2019 from a preliminary 51.0 and compared to the previous month's ten-year low of 50.3. The latest reading was the highest since April, but still signaled a modest overall improvement in manufacturing sector business conditions.

Driving the headline PMI figure higher was a quicker rise in production in September. The modest upturn was the fastest since April following reports of slightly stronger client demand and efforts to clear backlogs. Nonetheless, the rate of expansion was below the series trend.

The upturn in new business accelerated from August's recent low. New order growth was attributed to an increase in domestic client demand and efforts to price competitively. That said, the upturn was only moderate as a fall in foreign client demand weighed on total sales. The decline in export sales was the second-fastest for nearly five years. Ongoing trade wars also reportedly exacerbated difficult external demand conditions.

Subsequently, firms increased employment marginally in response to greater production requirements. The rise in staffing levels also came alongside a faster fall in backlogs of work.

Although tentative towards their output expectations for the coming 12 months, firms expressed a greater degree of confidence in September. The level of optimism reached a three-month high but remained relatively subdued overall.

Meanwhile, cost burdens increased moderately. The faster pace of inflation was linked to the impact of tariffs, although a drop in demand for inputs kept cost rises relatively muted. Similarly, output charges rose modestly, as firms sought to pass on higher costs, whilst maintaining efforts to be competitive.

In line with subdued demand conditions, input buying fell for a third month running. Firms also stated that weak demand had led to greater efforts to run down stocks. Despite a decline in purchasing, supplier performance deteriorated further as firms increasingly reported a change to domestic suppliers, due to tariffs, with vendors struggling to deliver goods to manufacturers amid capacity issues.


Markit Economics | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
10/1/2019 1:50:41 PM



United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 47.80 49.10 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Services PMI 50.90 50.70 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 52.60 56.40 62.00 37.80 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.10 50.30 57.90 50.30 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.00 50.70 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.10 0.40 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 0.80 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.90 -0.40 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.50 77.90 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.20 2.00 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.60 1.30 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.50 -0.50 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.00 0.20 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 499765.00 500278.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.10 1.40 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.00 0.30 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.03 116.00 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.20 0.20 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22483.00 22157.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1857.53 1791.42 1873.90 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 101.80 103.10 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 42.80 50.30 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 4.00 2.00 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.60 12.00 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -9.00 1.00 27.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.10 -0.41 2.79 -5.28 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 1.50 2.70 47.60 -59.90 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 47.10 50.40 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.20 17.00 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Car Production 2.55 2.67 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 428.44 417.68 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 9.28 2.93 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 104.00 98.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2562.00 -1213.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 128.88 128.31 128.88 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 10.50 4.13 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 713.00 712.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 83.67 85.64 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7497.00 7514.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index 11.00 -2.00 37.00 -32.00 Index Points [+]
Mining Production 2.60 5.00 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Manufacturing PMI

In the United States, the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 600 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Manufacturing PMI - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Manufacturing PMI - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
51.10 50.30 57.90 50.30 2012 - 2019 Monthly
SA




Country Last Previous
Australia 54.70 Sep/19
Brazil 53.40 Sep/19
Canada 51.00 Sep/19
China 51.40 Sep/19
Euro Area 45.70 Sep/19
France 50.10 Sep/19
Germany 41.70 Sep/19
India 51.40 Sep/19
Indonesia 49.10 Sep/19
Italy 47.80 Sep/19
Japan 48.90 Sep/19
Mexico 49.10 Sep/19
Netherlands 51.60 Sep/19
Russia 46.30 Sep/19
Saudi Arabia 57.30 Sep/19
Singapore 49.50 Sep/19
South Africa 41.60 Sep/19
South Korea 48.00 Sep/19
Spain 47.70 Sep/19
Switzerland 44.60 Sep/19
Turkey 50.00 Sep/19
United Kingdom 48.30 Sep/19
United States 51.10 Sep/19


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