China Exports YoY

China’s exports rose 2.5% year-on-year to USD 321.03 billion in March 2026, significantly missing forecasts of 8.3% and marking a sharp slowdown from February’s 39.6% surge. This marks the weakest growth since October 2025, driven by seasonal factors and a high base effect from March 2025’s tariff-driven export rush, rather than softening global demand. The later Lunar New Year in 2026 likely shortened March’s production window, while the exceptionally strong export growth in March 2025, driven by companies rushing to avoid US tariffs under President Donald Trump, created a challenging year-on-year comparison. Export growth slowed across most major regions, except for Taiwan and Hong Kong. Shipments to the US plunged 26.5%, resuming a downward trend after February’s brief pause in double-digit declines. For Q1 2026, total exports still grew 14.7% year-on-year to USD 977.61 billion.

China’s exports jumped 21.8% year-on-year to USD 656.58 billion in January–February 2026, accelerating sharply from a 6.6% rise in December and easily surpassing market forecasts of 7.1%. The surge marked the fastest growth in outbound shipments since October 2021, supported by firm global demand and a strong start to the year. Sales increased to Japan (8.9%), Hong Kong (38.7%), South Korea (27.0%), Taiwan (28.7%), Australia (29.4%), the ASEAN countries (29.4%), and the EU (27.8%), but shrank to the U.S. (-11.0%). Sales of refined oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel, and marine fuel, rose 12.7% to 8.13 million tons. President Trump’s renewed 2025 tariffs barely slowed China’s industrial momentum, as manufacturers redirected exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, analysts noted that China’s resilient exports and lower 2026 GDP growth target could delay the rollout of economic stimulus.

China’s exports rose by 6.6% yoy to a record peak of USD 357.8 billion in December 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.0% growth and accelerating from a 5.9% gain in November. It marked the strongest growth since September, driven by a surge in exports to non-US markets, as governments have sought to diversify export destinations since Trump’s victory in the November 2024 presidential election and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and the EU. Among major trading partners, exports grew to ASEAN (11.1%), China's largest trading partner in bloc terms, the EU (11.6%), Latin America (9.8%), Africa (21.8%), Japan (5.3%), Taiwan (11.2%), and Australia (12.9%). However, exports to the US plunged 30% in December after slumping 28.6% in November, and fell 20% for the full year 2025 due to the impact of newly imposed US tariffs, even though the US and China agreed to scale back some of their duties. For the whole of 2025, China’s exports rose 5.5% from a year earlier to USD 3.77 trillion