Retail trade in the UK rose 4.2 percent from a year earlier in January 2019, the most since December 2016, following an upwardly revised 3.1 percent growth in December and easily beating market expectations of 3.4 percent. Average store prices slowed to 0.4 percent, the lowest price increase since November 2016. Retail Sales YoY in the United Kingdom averaged 2.55 percent from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 9 percent in April of 2002 and a record low of -3.90 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in the United Kingdom is expected to be 0.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in the United Kingdom to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.