Americas

In the US, markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents’ Day, setting the stage for a busy week of earnings releases, with companies including Walmart, Warner Bros Discovery, Booking Holdings, Deere & Company, Palo Alto Networks, Moody’s, Cadence Design Systems, Analog Devices, and DoorDash scheduled to report. Investors will also focus on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes for further clues on the US central bank’s policy outlook. In January, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, following three consecutive cuts last year, amid signs of a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures. Economic data will be closely watched as well. The advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is expected to show 3% annualized growth, down from 4.4% in the third quarter, with the longest government shutdown on record likely having weighed on activity. December’s personal income is forecast to rise 0.3%, matching November, while consumer spending is expected to advance 0.4%, slightly below the previous month’s 0.5%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, is likely to increase 0.3%, compared with 0.2% in November, reflecting the impact of higher prices on households. Investors will also monitor data on durable goods orders, industrial production, housing starts and building permits, pending and new home sales, the trade balance, flash estimates of wholesale inventories, S&P Global PMIs, capital flows, final figures for the Michigan consumer sentiment, the NAHB Housing Market Index, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Elsewhere in America, Canada will release inflation figures, retail sales, trade balance data, housing starts, and new housing prices.

Eccles Building, Washington DC

Europe

Key highlights for Europe include February’s flash PMI surveys across Europe and a fresh round of UK inflation and labour market data. The flash PMI releases on Friday will be closely watched for updates on business activity across the region. In the Euro Area, manufacturing activity is expected to move closer to stabilisation, while the services sector should expand at a faster pace. In Germany, the services sector is projected to slow slightly, though manufacturing contraction is likely to ease. In France, services activity is expected to shrink at a slower rate, while manufacturing growth should strengthen. In the United Kingdom, manufacturing is forecast to continue expanding at roughly the same pace as in January, while services growth is expected to remain positive but moderate slightly. Beyond PMI data, several official UK releases will provide further direction for monetary policy. Labour market, inflation and retail sales figures will offer additional clues on the likely next move by the Bank of England following its recent narrow decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Headline inflation is expected to ease to around 3%, with core inflation slowing to approximately 3.1%. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 5.1%, while wage growth is likely to moderate. Retail sales are forecast to rise for a second consecutive month. Elsewhere in Europe, updated consumer confidence and industrial production data will shed light on economic momentum in the Eurozone. Industrial production is expected to decline after three months of gains. In Germany, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is expected to climb to its highest level since June 2021, signalling improving investor confidence. Meanwhile, Germany’s producer prices are forecast to fall for an eleventh straight month.

Berlin, Germany

Asia Pacific

In China, markets will be closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday from February 16 to 23, although January foreign direct investment data could still expected to be released. In Japan, investors will assess a broad range of economic indicators. Preliminary Q4 GDP is expected to show the economy returned to growth, expanding 0.4% after a 0.6% contraction in Q3. The January trade balance is projected to swing back into deficit, while inflation is seen easing to 2.0% from 2.1%. Additional releases include machinery orders, final industrial production figures, the Reuters Tankan index, and flash PMI surveys. In India, wholesale prices are expected to have risen 1.25% year-on-year last month, up from 0.83% in December. January trade and unemployment data, along with February flash PMI readings, are also due. In Australia, markets will scrutinize the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes for further guidance following recent hawkish signals. Wage growth likely remained steady at 0.8%, and the economy is expected to have added around 20,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. Flash PMI data will also be released. Elsewhere in the region, trade figures are due from Singapore, Malaysia, and New Zealand, while Malaysia will also publish inflation data. Thailand is set to report GDP figures. On the policy front, monetary decisions are expected from the central banks of New Zealand, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Tokyo, Japan