Americas

In the US, although the federal government shutdown is set to enter its fourth week, traders will still have one key data release to analyze — the CPI report on Friday, the only major publication from government agencies since October 1st. September inflation is expected to accelerate for a second consecutive month to 3.1%, marking the highest level since May 2024. On the other hand, the annual core inflation rate is projected to remain unchanged at 3.1%, and the monthly readings for both headline and core CPI are seen steady at 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, suggesting that inflationary pressures from tariffs remain contained for now. Investors will also keep an eye on additional US indicators, including S&P Global flash PMIs, existing home sales, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Meanwhile, the third-quarter earnings season continues in full swing, with key reports due from major companies such as Tesla, Procter & Gamble, General Electric, Coca-Cola, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Philip Morris International, GE Aerospace, CME Group, Netflix, Intuitive Surgical, Blackstone, IBM, AT&T, Intel, and Ford Motor. In Canada, attention will center on inflation and retail sales data, while mid-month inflation figures are expected from Brazil and Mexico.

Europe

Focus in Europe will be on flash PMI data for the Euro Area, Germany, France, and the UK, expected to show weaker services activity and a deeper manufacturing contraction, signaling sluggish growth momentum. In the UK, attention will also turn to key releases on inflation and retail sales. The Bank of England expects inflation to rise to 4%, while retail sales may soften after the BRC noted warm weather delayed seasonal clothing purchases as consumers brace for the November budget. Other data highlights include Euro Area consumer confidence, Germany’s producer prices, UK’s CBI business and industry surveys, Spain’s jobless figures, and Switzerland’s trade balance. On the policy front, the Central Bank of Turkey is expected to cut interest rates again, with the odds pointing to a 100bps cut. 

Asia Pacific

It will be another busy week in China, with the GDP report taking center stage. The Chinese economy is expected to have expanded 4.8% yoy in Q3, down from 5.2% in Q2 and the weakest pace in four quarters. The slowdown reflects persistent US–China trade tensions, muted domestic demand, and a sluggish property sector. Other key indicators are also expected to underscore the loss of momentum. Industrial production growth is forecast to ease to a one-year low of 5%, while retail sales are seen slowing to 2.9% from 3.4%. Fixed-asset investment is projected to rise only 0.2% in September, returning to growth rates last seen during the pandemic. On the monetary front, the Loan Prime Rate is expected to remain unchanged, with the five-year rate at 3.5% and the one-year rate at 3.0%. Markets will also closely watch the Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum, scheduled for October 20–23, for any fresh policy signals or reviews of the government’s 15th Five-Year Plan proposal. In Japan, attention will turn to September trade and inflation data, with core inflation expected to edge up to 2.9% from 2.7%, alongside the release of October PMI figures. Flash PMIs will also be in focus in India and Australia, while India is set to publish infrastructure output data. Elsewhere, New Zealand will report third-quarter inflation and September trade data, while Singapore, Malaysia, and Hong Kong release their September inflation figures. Taiwan will publish export orders, and Bank Indonesia is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps for a fourth consecutive meeting, while the Bank of Korea will also decide on monetary policy.