The Italian economy unexpectedly shrank 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2018, following a 0.2 percent growth in the previous period, the final estimate showed. It was the first contraction since the second quarter of 2014. GDP Growth Rate in Italy averaged 0.59 percent from 1960 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6 percent in the first quarter of 1970 and a record low of -2.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

GDP Growth Rate in Italy is expected to be 0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in Italy to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Italy GDP Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-07-31 10:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
2018-08-31 10:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
2018-10-30 09:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
2018-11-30 11:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final -0.1% 0.2% 0% 0%
2019-02-14 09:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 0%
2019-03-01 09:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0%
2019-05-02 09:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 0%



Italy Economy Contracts For 1st Time Since 2014



The Italian economy unexpectedly shrank 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2018, folllowing a 0.2 percent growth in the previous period, the final estimated showed. It was the first contraction since the second quarter of 2014.

From the expenditure side, gross fixed investment declined 1.1 percent in the third quarter of the year, after increasing 2.8 percent in the precedent period, mainly due to spending on machinery and equipment and weapon systems (-2.8 percent from to 6.9 percent); tranport equipment (-0.7 percent from to 7.6 percent); other buildings and structures (0.3 percent from 0.8 percent) and dwellings (0.6 percent from 0.7 percent). Additionally, household consumption fell by 0.1 percent, compared to a flat reading in the second quarter, and government expenditure showed no growth, following a 0.2 percent gain. 

Net trade contributed positively to the GDP as exports rose 1.1 percent (from 0.6 percent in Q2) while imports went up at a softer 0.8 percent (from 2.4 percent).

From the production side, the services industries shrank by 0.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent growth in the prior period. Five out of the seven sub-sectors of the services induestries recorded contraction: financial and insurance activities (-1.5 percent from 2.1 percent in Q2); professional and support activities (-1.3 percent from -0.1 percent); other services (-0.3 percent from 0.4 percent); and information and communication (-0.3 percent from -1.1 percent). Additionally, trade, transport and accommodation recorded no growth, after expanding 0.3 percent in the second quarter. On the other hand, public administration, defense, education, health rose 0.1 percent (from a flat reading) and real estate activities advanced 0.4 percent (the same pace as in Q2).

Industrial output contracted by 0.1 percent from a 0.2 percent growth in the previous period, as manufacturing fell 0.3 percent (from 0.1 percent in Q2) and construction rose 0.6 percent (the same as in Q2).

By contrast, agriculture output grew 1.6 percent, rebounding from a 2.8 percent contraction in the second quarter. 

Year-on-year, the economy advanced 0.7 percent, after a 1.2 percent expansion in the second quarter of the year and missing market consensus of a 0.8 percent growth. It was the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 2015.



Istat | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
11/30/2018 11:46:20 AM



Italy GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate -0.10 0.20 6.00 -2.80 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.70 1.20 10.30 -7.20 percent [+]
GDP 1934.80 1859.38 2390.73 40.39 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 403919.00 404414.00 425734.70 294839.30 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 74584.00 75380.00 93540.90 52865.10 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 34877.83 34318.50 38236.80 10867.70 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35220.08 34655.26 38612.01 31141.90 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7182.00 7068.00 7939.90 6493.70 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16532.00 16429.00 24471.60 15838.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 70584.00 70816.00 79020.00 61759.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 271273.00 271776.00 272080.50 224998.40 EUR Million [+]


Italy GDP Growth Rate

Italy is the ninth largest economy in the world and the third largest in the Euro Zone. The country has a diversified industrial base driven in large part by manufacturing of high-quality consumer goods. Composition of the GDP on the expenditure side: household consumption (61 percent), government expenditure (19 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (17 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 30 percent of GDP while imports for 27 percent, adding 3 percent to total GDP. This page provides - Italy GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Italy GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.10 0.20 6.00 -2.80 1960 - 2018 percent Quarterly
SA




Country Last Previous
United States 3.50 Sep/18
Indonesia 3.09 Sep/18
Singapore 3.00 Sep/18
South Africa 2.20 Sep/18
India 1.90 Jun/18
China 1.60 Sep/18
Russia 0.90 Jun/18
Brazil 0.80 Sep/18
Mexico 0.80 Sep/18
South Korea 0.60 Sep/18
Spain 0.60 Sep/18
United Kingdom 0.60 Sep/18
Canada 0.50 Sep/18
France 0.40 Sep/18
Australia 0.30 Sep/18
Euro Area 0.20 Sep/18
Netherlands 0.20 Sep/18
Saudi Arabia -0.05 Mar/18
Italy -0.10 Sep/18
Germany -0.20 Sep/18
Switzerland -0.20 Sep/18
Japan -0.60 Sep/18
Turkey -1.10 Sep/18
Argentina -4.00 Jun/18


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