The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK dropped to -22.0 in the first quarter of 2021, the lowest since an all-time low of -87 was hit in the second quarter of 2020, as manufacturers expect a sharp fall in output and new orders in the three months ahead. At the same time, stockpiling picked up ahead of Britain's departure from the EU. "This appears to be linked to widespread COVID-related supply disruption, such as delays in shipments from abroad, a shortage of containers across the world, and knock-on impacts from disruptions to production over 2020," the CBI said. "Border challenges and customs-related delays arising from Brexit also appear to be playing a role," it added. source: Confederation of British Industry

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -4.13 points from 1958 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 55 points in the third quarter of 1959 and a record low of -87 points in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides - United Kingdom Business Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Business Confidence - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2021.

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be -8.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United Kingdom to stand at -8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Business Confidence is projected to trend around -6.00 points in 2022 and -2.00 points in 2023, according to our econometric models.

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United Kingdom Business Confidence

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-22.00 0.00 55.00 -87.00 1958 - 2021 points Quarterly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-04-23 10:00 AM Q2 -87 23 -60
2020-07-23 10:00 AM Q3 -1 -87 -38
2020-10-22 10:00 AM Q4 0 -1 -14
2021-01-21 11:00 AM Q1 -22 0 -8
2021-04-22 10:00 AM Q2 -22 -10
2021-07-23 10:00 AM Q3 -16
2021-10-22 10:00 AM Q4 -8
Go to our Calendar for more events. Or learn more about the Calendar API for direct access.


News Stream
UK Business Confidence Weakest in 3 Quarters
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK dropped to -22.0 in the first quarter of 2021, the lowest since an all-time low of -87 was hit in the second quarter of 2020, as manufacturers expect a sharp fall in output and new orders in the three months ahead. At the same time, stockpiling picked up ahead of Britain's departure from the EU. "This appears to be linked to widespread COVID-related supply disruption, such as delays in shipments from abroad, a shortage of containers across the world, and knock-on impacts from disruptions to production over 2020," the CBI said. "Border challenges and customs-related delays arising from Brexit also appear to be playing a role," it added.
2021-01-21
UK Business Optimism Little-Changed in Q4
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK was little-changed at 0 in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to -1 in the previous period and an all-time low of -87 in the three months to June. At the same time, export sentiment fell at a slightly quicker pace than in the previous period (-21 vs -17 in Q3). Looking ahead to the coming quarter, manufacturers expect output to grow at a moderate pace. However, total new orders are anticipated to remain unchanged, reflecting steady growth in domestic orders and a slower fall in export orders. Employment is expected to be broadly unchanged in the next quarter, following six quarters of decline. Meanwhile, almost a third of manufacturers are concerned that access to materials or components may limit their output over the quarter ahead, while they are less concerned that access to finance could constrain near-term output or investment plans.
2020-10-22
UK Business Confidence Recovers from Record Low
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK jumped to -1 in the third quarter of 2020 from an all-time low of -87 in the previous three-month period, as the economy reopened from a coronavirus-induced lockdown. Firms expect output and total orders to rebound from record slumps in the next three months, with domestic demand seen rebounding and export orders seen falling only slightly. Also, employment is set to decline at a softer pace, after suffering the biggest contraction since the second quarter of 1999. Manufacturers expect investment in buildings and plant & machinery to decline in next year, but to a lesser extent than last quarter. Furthermore, firms plan to raise capital expenditure on product & process innovation and training & retraining in the next year.
2020-07-23
UK Industry Confidence Plunges to Record Low
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK tumbled to -87 in the second quarter of 2020 from +23 in the previous three-month period. That was its lowest level since records began in the 1950s, as manufacturers took a sharp hit during the shutdown in response to COVID-19. Firms in the industry sector expect output and orders to fall at a much faster pace, while employment is seen contracting the most since 1980. Investment spending plans for the next year sank to a survey-record low for buildings and plant & machinery, with record proportions of firms particularly concerned about demand uncertainty and internal finance availability.
2020-04-23

United Kingdom Business Confidence
In the United Kingdom, the Business Optimism Index is published by the Confederation of British Industry's in its Industrial Trends Survey. An average of 400 small, medium and large companies from the manufacturing sector is surveyed each quarter. The Questionnaire accesses the overall sentiment regarding general and export business situation, investment, capacity, order books, employment, output, stocks, prices competitiveness regarding domestic, EU and non-EU markets and innovation and training. For each assessment is computed a sub-index as the percentage of positive answers minus the percentage of negative answers. The composite index is then computed as the weighted average of the sub-indices. An Optimism Index of +100 indicates that all survey respondents are much more confident about future prospects, while -100 suggests that all survey respondents are much less confident about future prospects. An index level of 0 indicates neutrality.