The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK tumbled to -87 in the second quarter of 2020 from +23 in the previous three-month period. That was its lowest level since records began in the 1950s, as manufacturers took a sharp hit during the shutdown in response to COVID-19. Firms in the industry sector expect output and orders to fall at a much faster pace, while employment is seen contracting the most since 1980. Investment spending plans for the next year sank to a survey-record low for buildings and plant & machinery, with record proportions of firms particularly concerned about demand uncertainty and internal finance availability.

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -4.08 points from 1958 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 55 points in the third quarter of 1959 and a record low of -87 points in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides - United Kingdom Business Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United Kingdom Business Confidence - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2020. source: Confederation of British Industry

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be -38.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United Kingdom to stand at -10.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Business Confidence is projected to trend around -8.00 points in 2021 and -6.00 points in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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United Kingdom Business Confidence

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-87.00 23.00 55.00 -87.00 1958 - 2020 points Quarterly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-07-23 10:00 AM Q3 -32 -13 -14
2019-10-22 10:00 AM Q4 -44 -32 -38
2020-01-22 11:00 AM Q1 23 -44 -28
2020-04-23 10:00 AM Q2 -87 23 -60
2020-07-23 10:00 AM Q3 -87 -38
2020-10-22 10:00 AM Q4 -14
Go to our Calendar for more events. Or learn more about the Calendar API for direct access.


News Stream
UK Industry Confidence Plunges to Record Low
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK tumbled to -87 in the second quarter of 2020 from +23 in the previous three-month period. That was its lowest level since records began in the 1950s, as manufacturers took a sharp hit during the shutdown in response to COVID-19. Firms in the industry sector expect output and orders to fall at a much faster pace, while employment is seen contracting the most since 1980. Investment spending plans for the next year sank to a survey-record low for buildings and plant & machinery, with record proportions of firms particularly concerned about demand uncertainty and internal finance availability.
2020-04-23
UK Business Optimism Hits 6-Year High
The CBI's quarterly gauge of manufacturing optimism in the UK rose to +23 in the first quarter of 2020, its highest level since the second quarter of 2014. Export sentiment and investment intentions also improved, with a record proportion of firms expecting to authorise capital expenditure in order to expand capacity. Still, manufacturers were concerned that a shortage of labour could constrain investment spending over the year ahead. Output volumes continued to contract largely due to a sharp decline in motor vehicles production, and both total new orders and headcounts fell at the quickest rates since the financial crisis amid sluggish domestic demand. However, output and orders are expected to recover slightly in the quarter ahead, while employment is seen declining at slower pace.
2020-01-22
UK Business Optimism Falls to Over 3-Year Low: CBI
The CBI Business Optimism Indicator for the UK dropped to -44 in the last quarter of 2019 from -32 in the previous three-month period. It was the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2019, amid Brexit uncertainty. Also, optimism about export prospects for the year ahead worsened to the greatest extent since October 2001 and investment intentions deteriorated, with plans to spend on buildings, plant & machinery and training & retraining at their most negative since the financial crisis. New orders declined at the same pace as the previous quarter, still firms expect them to fall at a steeper rate in the three months to January. Quarterly headcount was down, dropping at its fastest since April 2010, with firms anticipating an even sharper fall the following quarter.
2019-10-22
UK Business Optimism Slumps to 3-Year Low
The CBI Business Optimism Indicator for the UK plunged 19 points to -32 in the third quarter of 2019, the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2016, due to ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Also, investment spending plans weakened again while optimism about export prospects for the year ahead worsened. Domestic and export orders declined at their fastest pace since the financial crisis and overall order books were below “normal” to the greatest extent since 2010. Manufacturers continued to grow their stocks of raw materials and finished goods, but at a slower pace than in the three months to April, when stocks were increased at the fastest pace on record. Still, output volumes in the next three months are expected to recover slightly.
2019-07-23

United Kingdom Business Confidence
In the United Kingdom, the Business Optimism Index is published by the Confederation of British Industry's in its Industrial Trends Survey. An average of 400 small, medium and large companies from the manufacturing sector is surveyed each quarter. The Questionnaire accesses the overall sentiment regarding general and export business situation, investment, capacity, order books, employment, output, stocks, prices competitiveness regarding domestic, EU and non-EU markets and innovation and training. For each assessment is computed a sub-index as the percentage of positive answers minus the percentage of negative answers. The composite index is then computed as the weighted average of the sub-indices. An Optimism Index of +100 indicates that all survey respondents are much more confident about future prospects, while -100 suggests that all survey respondents are much less confident about future prospects. An index level of 0 indicates neutrality.