UK manufacturers’ optimism about the business situation rose to -27 in Q4 2026 from -36 in Q3, according to CBI. Business Confidence in the United Kingdom averaged -5.20 points from 1958 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 55.00 points in the third quarter of 1959 and a record low of -87.00 points in the second quarter of 2020. source: Confederation of British Industry

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom increased to -27 points in the fourth quarter of 2026 from -36 points in the third quarter of 2026.

Business Confidence in the United Kingdom increased to -27 points in the fourth quarter of 2026 from -36 points in the third quarter of 2026. Business Confidence in the United Kingdom is expected to be -38.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Business Confidence is projected to trend around -3.00 points in 2027 and -5.00 points in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-07-23 10:00 AM
CBI Business Optimism Index
Q3 -36 -65 -40
2026-10-22 10:00 AM
CBI Business Optimism Index
Q4 -27 -36 -38


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 1882.00 1953.00 Companies Sep 2026
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 1.00 0.50 percent Sep 2026
CBI Business Optimism Index -27.00 -36.00 points Dec 2026
Car Production YoY 70831.00 39328.00 Units Sep 2026
Car Registrations 152730.00 350536.00 Units Oct 2026
Changes in Inventories -4103.00 421.00 GBP Million Jun 2026
Composite Leading Indicator 101.38 101.14 points Sep 2026
Corporate Profits 170760.00 164459.00 GBP Million Jun 2026
Corruption Index 70.00 71.00 Points Dec 2025
Corruption Rank 20.00 20.00 Dec 2025
Crude Oil Rigs 7.00 6.00 Sep 2026
Electricity Price 181.34 175.82 GBP/MWh Nov 2026
Electricity Production 51855.70 68521.00 Gigawatt-hour Jun 2026
CBI Industrial Trends Orders -32.00 -9.00 Net Balance Oct 2026
Industrial Production YoY 1.60 0.80 percent Aug 2026
Industrial Production MoM 0.80 0.30 percent Aug 2026
GDP 3-Month Avg 0.70 0.50 percent Aug 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY 3.00 2.20 percent Aug 2026
Manufacturing Production MoM 1.20 1.00 Percent Aug 2026
Mining Production -5.00 -7.80 percent Aug 2026
New Orders 9163.00 10395.00 GBP Million Jun 2026
New Car Sales YoY 5.40 12.00 percent Oct 2026
Business Investment QoQ 1.80 3.00 percent Jun 2026


United Kingdom Business Confidence
In the United Kingdom, the Business Optimism Index is published by the Confederation of British Industry's in its Industrial Trends Survey. An average of 400 small, medium and large companies from the manufacturing sector is surveyed each quarter. The Questionnaire accesses the overall sentiment regarding general and export business situation, investment, capacity, order books, employment, output, stocks, prices competitiveness regarding domestic, EU and non-EU markets and innovation and training. For each assessment is computed a sub-index as the percentage of positive answers minus the percentage of negative answers. The composite index is then computed as the weighted average of the sub-indices. An Optimism Index of +100 indicates that all survey respondents are much more confident about future prospects, while -100 suggests that all survey respondents are much less confident about future prospects. An index level of 0 indicates neutrality.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-27.00 -36.00 55.00 -87.00 1958 - 2026 points Quarterly

News Stream
UK Business Morale Deteriorates Most Since Covid Crisis
The CBI’s quarterly measure of UK manufacturing optimism plunged to -65 in April from -19 in January, marking the weakest sentiment since 2020 as the Iran war fuels uncertainty. The survey highlighted growing pressure on supply chains and rising costs, with firms turning increasingly pessimistic about the outlook. Order books deteriorated further, with the balance falling to -38 from -27 in March, well below the long-run average. At the same time, inflation expectations surged sharply, with the price gauge jumping to +32 from +12, the largest monthly increase on record. Investment intentions also weakened significantly, with plans for spending on buildings, machinery, and training dropping to their lowest levels since April 2020.
2026-04-23
UK Business Optimism Remains Weak
Business sentiment in the UK deteriorated in January, with manufacturers optimism about both the business situation (-19%) and export prospects (-12%) declining. However, sentiment is now the least negative since July 2024. Confidence is being undermined by falling output and a sharp decline in new orders, as customers delay decisions and limit spending, leaving order books thin. This lack of demand visibility is the main constraint on confidence and is holding back investment plans. Although cost growth has slowed, high wages, energy prices and taxes continue to squeeze margins. With capacity utilisation and employment still falling, confidence remains subdued, highlighting the need for lower business costs and clearer policy to support recovery.
2026-01-21