The French economy advanced 0.3 percent on quarter in the three months to December 2018, the same pace as in the previous period and above market expectations of a 0.1 percent expansion, a preliminary estimate showed. Exports and fixed investment were the main drivers of growth while household consumption stalled. GDP Growth Rate in France averaged 0.78 percent from 1949 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 8 percent in the third quarter of 1968 and a record low of -5.30 percent in the second quarter of 1968.

GDP Growth Rate in France is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in France to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the France GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

France GDP Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-30 06:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
2018-11-29 07:45 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
2018-12-21 07:45 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
2019-01-30 06:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
2019-02-28 07:45 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
2019-03-26 06:45 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 0.3% 0.3%
2019-04-26 05:30 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est 0.3%



French Q4 GDP Growth Beats Expectations

The French economy advanced 0.3 percent on quarter in the three months to December 2018, the same pace as in the previous period and above market expectations of a 0.1 percent expansion, a preliminary estimate showed. Exports and fixed investment were the main drivers of growth while household consumption stalled.

Net foreign trade contributed the most to the GDP growth (0.2 percentage points), followed by final domestic demand (0.1 percentage points), while inventory changes subtracted 0.1 percentage points. This negative contribution was mostly attributed to transport equipment.

Exports surged 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter (vs 0.2 percent in Q3) and imports increased at a softer 1.6 percent (vs -0.7 percent in Q3).

Within domestic demand, fixed investment rose 0.2 percent (vs 1 percent in Q3) as corporate investment growth slowed (0.3 percent vs 1.7 percent), notably because of the decline in businesses’ purchases of cars. In addition, household investment continued to fall (-0.4 percent after -0.1 percent), particularly in housing. Meanwhile, government expenditure went up 0.3 percent, after a 0.2 percent rise in the previous period.

Household consumption stalled in the fourth quarter, following a 0.4 percent advance in the previous three-month period as consumption of goods declined 0.7 percent (vs 0.3 percent in Q3), while consumption of services increased 0.5 percent (vs 0.4 percent). In particular, the strong downturn in engineered goods (-1.2 percent vs 0.6 percent) was linked to a decrease in automotive purchases following the surge in Q3. Expenditures on energy declined again (-0.4 percent vs -0.1 percent) due to low fuel consumption and temperatures higher than seasonal averages. In services, consumption accelerated very slightly (0.5 percent vs 0.4 percent).

Year-on-year, the economy advanced 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, the weakest pace of expansion since the third quarter of 2016 and following a 1.3 percent growth in the previous three-month period.

Considering 2018 full year, the economy grew 1.5 percent, easing from a 2.3 percent expansion in 2017. Growth slowed for household consumption (0.8 percent vs 1.1 percent in 2017), fixed investment (2.9 percent vs 4.7 percent), government spending (1 percent vs 1.4 percent), exports (3.1 percent vs 4.7 percent) and imports (1.1 percent vs 4.1 percent). On the other hand, inventory changes contributed negatively to the GDP growth.


INSEE | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
1/30/2019 11:50:28 AM



France GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.30 8.00 -5.30 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.90 1.30 12.60 -3.80 percent [+]
GDP 2582.50 2465.13 2918.38 62.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 572804.00 571271.00 572804.00 66592.00 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 132317.00 132004.00 132317.00 11871.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 42567.74 41968.98 42567.74 12991.27 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 38605.67 38062.64 38605.67 29514.85 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7826.00 7814.00 8645.00 2105.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 27883.00 27914.00 33579.00 7105.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 58059.00 57953.00 58295.00 7643.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 292309.00 291090.00 292309.00 26341.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 22873.00 22928.00 22928.00 1629.00 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 12573.00 12513.00 15243.00 658.00 EUR Million [+]


France GDP Growth Rate

France is the seventh largest economy in the world and the second largest in the Euro Area. the biggest sector of the economy is household consumption (55 percent) followed by government expenditure (24 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (22 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 29 percent of GDP while imports account for 31 percent, subtracting 2 percent from total GDP. This page provides the latest reported value for - France GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. France GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.30 0.30 8.00 -5.30 1949 - 2018 percent Quarterly
SA




Country Last Previous
United States 3.40 Sep/18
South Africa 2.20 Sep/18
China 1.50 Dec/18
India 1.50 Sep/18
Singapore 1.40 Dec/18
South Korea 1.00 Dec/18
Brazil 0.80 Sep/18
Spain 0.70 Dec/18
Canada 0.50 Sep/18
Netherlands 0.50 Dec/18
Australia 0.30 Sep/18
France 0.30 Dec/18
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Mexico 0.30 Dec/18
Russia 0.30 Sep/18
Euro Area 0.20 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.20 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia -0.05 Mar/18
Italy -0.20 Dec/18
Switzerland -0.20 Sep/18
Argentina -0.70 Sep/18
Turkey -1.10 Sep/18
Indonesia -1.69 Dec/18


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