Americas

The US–Israel–Iran conflict is set to remain the main driver of market sentiment, both in the US and globally, keeping energy prices and inflation concerns firmly in focus. In the US, the economic calendar is relatively light. Key releases include the flash S&P Global PMI for March, which will provide an early snapshot of business activity, and February’s foreign trade prices, with import prices expected to rise 0.2%, matching January’s increase. Other data to watch include the fourth-quarter current account balance, construction spending, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Richmond Fed and Kansas Fed manufacturing indexes, as well as final readings on Q4 productivity and labour costs. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March will also be closely followed, particularly after the preliminary reading pointed to early signs of strain linked to the Middle East crisis. Elsewhere in the Americas, Mexico’s central bank will announce its latest monetary policy decision, alongside the release of trade data and mid-month inflation figures. In Brazil, investors will be watching mid-month inflation and trade data.

Cleveland, Ohio

Flash PMIs are due for major European economies, including the Euro Area, Germany, France, and the UK. The manufacturing sector is expected to move into contraction in Germany, France, and the Euro Area, while slowing in the UK. Meanwhile, the services sector is projected to contract further in France and to ease in Germany, the Euro Area, and the UK. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to fall to a two-year low, while the Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to drop to an 11-month low, reflecting sentiment that has been heavily weighed down by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Across the Euro Area, flash consumer sentiment is also expected to decline, highlighting the broader regional downtrend linked to the geopolitical tensions. Spain is set to release its preliminary March inflation figures, with the headline rate expected to edge up slightly to 2.4%. In the UK, consumer price inflation is projected to remain unchanged at 3% in February, with the core rate steady at 3.1%. The key retail sales report is also due, with sales expected to fall month-on-month following two consecutive increases. On the monetary policy front, Norges Bank will hold its interest rate decision meeting. This comes after several central banks in the region kept rates unchanged earlier in the week, citing the Iran conflict as a new source of uncertainty for the inflation outlook. On the political front, investors will be closely watching Denmark’s snap parliamentary election. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her Social Democrats are projected to deliver their weakest result in over a century, yet she is still expected to remain in power following a vote overshadowed by US President Trump’s renewed push for control of Greenland.

London, UK

Asia Pacific

In China, the data calendar is light, with February industrial profits the only notable release. In Japan, focus will shift to February inflation data, with anual core inflation expected to ease to 1.7% from 2%. Markets will also watch the minutes from the central bank’s January meeting, along with March PMI reports, where manufacturing activity is seen slowing only marginally. March PMI data is also set to be released for India and Australia. In Australia, February inflation figures will be closely monitored following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s second consecutive rate hike amid persistent price pressures, with the headline rate expected to hold at 3.8%. Elsewhere in the region, inflation data are due from Singapore, while trade figures are expected from Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines. South Korea will also publish producer prices, alongside consumer and business confidence indicators.

Tokyo Skyline