The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to a near three-year low of 7 in the second quarter of 2019 from 12 in the previous period, missing market consensus of 9. Sentiment softened among enterprises producing: chemicals (8 vs 12 in Q1); iron & steel (10 vs 12); food & beverages (9 vs 11); processed metals (-11 vs 8); production machinery (17 vs 31); business oriented machinery (8 vs 13); electrical machinery (2 vs 9); shipbuilding & heavy machinery (7 vs 11); and motor vehicles (5 vs 15). In contrast, sentiment rose among companies producing textiles (11 vs 3); lumber & wood products (-6 vs 0); pulp & paper (0 vs -11); petroleum & coal products (12 vs 6); and non-ferrous metals (0 vs -9). Meanwhile, big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 7.4 percent in the financial year to March 2020, against forecasts of an 8.9 percent increase. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment improved to 23 from a two-year low of 21 in Q1. Business Confidence in Japan averaged 1.52 Index Points from 1983 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 53 Index Points in the second quarter of 1989 and a record low of -58 Index Points in the first quarter of 2009.
Business Confidence in Japan is expected to be 5.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Japan to stand at 9.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Business Confidence is projected to trend around 2.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.