The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers rose to 24 in Q3 2026 from 22 in Q2, its highest reading since Q1 2018, but still fell short of market expectations of 25. The result marked the sixth consecutive quarterly improvement, amid strong global demand driven by AI investment, even as rising costs and energy pressures from Middle East tensions remained a drag. Confidence strengthened across firms producing textiles (13 vs 8 in Q2), chemicals (26 vs 20), petroleum & coal (36 vs 9), ceramics, stone (22 vs 11), non-ferrous metals (45 vs 36), processed metals (16 vs 11), production machinery (43 vs 36), electrical machinery (33 vs 29), and construction (56 vs 52). In contrast, sentiment eased in industries producing lumber & wood (-7 vs 7), pulp & paper (36 vs 40), food & beverages (3 vs 9), motor vehicles (11 vs 12), and transport & postal activities (21 vs 25). Meanwhile, large firms expect capital expenditure to rise 11.3%, after an 11.5% increase in Q2. source: Bank of Japan

Business Confidence in Japan increased to 24 points in the third quarter of 2026 from 22 points in the second quarter of 2026. Business Confidence in Japan averaged 2.50 points from 1983 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 53.00 points in the second quarter of 1989 and a record low of -58.00 points in the first quarter of 2009. This page provides - Japan Business Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Japan Business Confidence - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2026.

Business Confidence in Japan increased to 24 points in the third quarter of 2026 from 22 points in the second quarter of 2026. Business Confidence in Japan is expected to be 23.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Japan Business Confidence is projected to trend around 24.00 points in 2027 and 28.00 points in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-06-30 11:50 PM
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Q2 22 17 16 13
2026-09-30 11:50 PM
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Q3 24 22 25 23
2026-12-13 11:50 PM
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Q4 24 22



Components Last Previous Unit Reference
Tankan Large All Industry Capex 11.30 11.50 percent Sep 2026
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook 21.00 17.00 points Sep 2026

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 24.00 22.00 points Sep 2026
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index 14.00 9.00 points Sep 2026
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 30.00 28.00 points Sep 2026


Japan Business Confidence
In Japan, the quarterly Tankan Index of Sentiment at Large Manufacturers covers about 1,100 companies with capital over 1 billion Yen. The survey is done by mail or e-mail and asks participants to evaluate current trends and conditions in the business place and their respective industries as well as their expected business activities for the next quarter and year. The indicator is calculated by subtracting the percentage share of enterprises responding on the negative side from the share giving positive assessments. The index varies on a scale of -100 to 100 such that a value above zero indicates business optimism, a value below zero pessimism and 0 indicates neutrality.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
24.00 22.00 53.00 -58.00 1983 - 2026 points Quarterly

News Stream
Japan Q3 Business Confidence Hit Highest Since 2018
The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers rose to 24 in Q3 2026 from 22 in Q2, its highest reading since Q1 2018, but still fell short of market expectations of 25. The result marked the sixth consecutive quarterly improvement, amid strong global demand driven by AI investment, even as rising costs and energy pressures from Middle East tensions remained a drag. Confidence strengthened across firms producing textiles (13 vs 8 in Q2), chemicals (26 vs 20), petroleum & coal (36 vs 9), ceramics, stone (22 vs 11), non-ferrous metals (45 vs 36), processed metals (16 vs 11), production machinery (43 vs 36), electrical machinery (33 vs 29), and construction (56 vs 52). In contrast, sentiment eased in industries producing lumber & wood (-7 vs 7), pulp & paper (36 vs 40), food & beverages (3 vs 9), motor vehicles (11 vs 12), and transport & postal activities (21 vs 25). Meanwhile, large firms expect capital expenditure to rise 11.3%, after an 11.5% increase in Q2.
2026-09-30
Japan Q2 Business Confidence Highest Since 2018
The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers climbed to 22 in Q2 2026 from 17 in Q1, beating market forecasts of 16 and reaching its highest print since Q1 2018. The upturn suggested that the economy has, for now, remained resilient despite the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict. Confidence strengthened across firms producing lumber & wood (7 vs 0 in Q1), chemicals (20 vs 14), non-ferrous metals (36 vs 23), general-purpose machinery (38 vs 34), production machinery (36 vs 26), business-oriented machinery (23 vs 15), electrical machinery (29 vs 22), and shipbuilding (39 vs 35). Also, sentiment rebounded in the textiles industry (8 vs -5), while it was flat for food & drinks (at 9). In contrast, confidence fell in industries producing pulp (40 vs 44), ceramics (11 vs 25), and processed metals (11 vs 16). Meanwhile, large firms expect capital expenditure to increase by 11.5%, accelerating from 3.3% in Q1, which had marked the weakest rise since Q1 2023.
2026-07-01
Japan Q1 Business Mood Inches Higher
The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers edged up to 17 in Q1 2026, beating market estimates of 16 and marking the highest level since Q4 2021. The uptick suggested Middle East conflict risks have yet to dent business morale. Confidence strengthened across firms producing pulp (44 vs 40 in Q4), electrical machinery (22 vs 21), processed metals (16 vs 10), general-purpose machinery (34 vs 27), production machinery (26 vs 16), motor vehicles (13 vs 9), and business-oriented machinery (15 vs 9). Meanwhile, sentiment held steady in iron & steel (-15), food & drinks (9), and shipbuilding (35). On the other hand, weaker readings came from textiles (-5 vs -4), lumber & wood (0 vs 7), petroleum (18 vs 36), and chemicals (14 vs 19). Simultaneously, large firms plan to lift capital expenditure by just 3.3% in Q1, sharply down from 12.6% previously and the softest rise since Q1 2023, reflecting high borrowing costs and intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.
2026-04-01