Americas

In the US, as in other global markets, the evolving situation in the Middle East is likely to dominate headlines in the coming week. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of de-escalation and a possible resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On the data front, the CPI is expected to show the annual inflation rate edging up to 2.5% from 2.4%, while the monthly increase is projected to remain steady at 0.2%. Core inflation is also seen holding at 2.5%. The second estimate of GDP is likely to confirm the economy expanded at a slower 1.4% annualized pace in Q4. Meanwhile, the PCE report for January is expected to show headline prices rising 0.3% month-on-month, while the core PCE measure is forecast to remain at 0.4%. Among other indicators, durable goods orders are projected to rebound 1.2% in January, while existing home sales for February are expected to fall to 3.90 million units (annualized) following an 8.4% decline in January, as elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on the housing market. The preliminary March reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to ease slightly to 56.3, while the trade deficit in January likely narrowed modestly to $69 billion. Other key releases include JOLTS Job Openings, building permits, housing starts, the monthly budget statement, consumer inflation expectations, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. On the corporate side, companies scheduled to report quarterly results include  Oracle, Hewlett Packard, UiPath, Adobe, and Wheaton Precious Metals. Elsewhere in the Americas, Canada will publish its employment report and foreign trade data, Mexico will release inflation figures, and Brazil is set to report inflation and retail sales.

Eccles Building, Washington DC

Europe

In the UK, monthly GDP figures are expected to show the economy expanded for a third consecutive month in January, with both industrial and manufacturing output rebounding. Trade data and the British Retail Consortium Retail Sales Monitor are also scheduled for release. In Germany, industrial production is expected to have rebounded in January, while factory orders which were delayed from this week, are projected to decline after four consecutive months of gains. Germany’s trade surplus is forecast to narrow to €15.2 billion in January compared with a year earlier. In France, the trade deficit is also expected to have narrowed. Elsewhere in the region, key releases include Euro Area industrial production, Germany’s wholesale prices, Italy’s producer prices and industrial output, and Switzerland’s consumer confidence index. Final CPI readings are also due from Germany, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Sweden, alongside inflation figures for Norway and Denmark. Sweden will also publish monthly GDP data, while Turkey is set to release industrial production figures. In Russia, inflation is expected to ease to 5.7%. On the monetary policy front, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, following five consecutive rate cuts.

London, UK

Asia Pacific

In China, investors will continue to monitor developments from the ongoing National People’s Congress next week after Beijing set a softer economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026. The country will also release February inflation data, with headline CPI expected to accelerate to 0.8% from 0.2%, while producer prices are likely to decline at a slightly slower pace of 1.1%. Trade figures for the first two months of the year are also due, with the surplus expected to widen by about $12 billion year-on-year to $182 billion. Monetary and credit indicators will also be closely watched, with new yuan loans projected to decline in February, partly reflecting seasonal weakness linked to the Lunar New Year holidays. In Japan, final data are expected to show the economy expanded 0.3% in Q4 2025, faster than the 0.1% initially estimated, supported by stronger capital expenditure. Household spending is likely to have rebounded 0.8% in January, while producer prices are seen rising 0.1% in February. Markets will also track machine tool orders, coincident and leading economic indexes, and the current account balance. In Australia, investors will assess consumer and business confidence indicators, along with consumer inflation expectations and final building permits. Elsewhere in the region, inflation data are due from India, while trade figures will be released by Taiwan. South Korea is also set to publish final fourth-quarter GDP figures. Finally, the State Bank of Pakistan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 10.5% at next week’s meeting.

Merlion Oil Tanker