Gold held steady near $4,800 an ounce on Friday and was on track for a fourth consecutive weekly advance, as prospects for a permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran helped ease concerns over inflation and central bank rate hikes. President Donald Trump said Tehran had agreed to terms including abandoning ambitions for a nuclear weapon, supplying “free oil,” and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although Iranian officials have yet to verify these claims. Despite this, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade, while IMF Executive Director Fatih Birol cautioned that restoring a meaningful portion of disrupted oil and gas output could take up to two years. Even so, oil prices have retreated sharply amid growing optimism over a potential Iran deal, easing inflationary pressures and dampening expectations of further rate hikes. Gold is set to rise by about 1% this week and remains roughly 17% above its March low.

WTI crude futures slipped toward $93 per barrel on Friday, trimming gains from the previous session after US President Donald Trump voiced optimism about a possible agreement to end the conflict with Iran. He said Tehran had accepted terms that include abandoning ambitions for a nuclear weapon, providing “free oil,” and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though Iranian authorities have yet to confirm the claims. Trump also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which was confirmed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to a dual blockade by the US and Iran, keeping markets on edge over further disruptions to global energy flows. Meanwhile, IMF Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that restoring a meaningful portion of disrupted oil and gas output could take up to two years.

Annual food inflation in New Zealand slowed to 3.4% in March 2026 from 4.5% in the previous month, reflecting the first monthly moderation in food inflation in three months. The latest figure also marked the lowest food inflation since February 2025. The meat, poultry, and fish group rose 7.3% (vs 7.5% in February), which was the largest contributor to the annual increase in food prices, followed by restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food, up 2.8% (vs 2.7% in February). By contrast, olive oil and free-range eggs prices fell by 7.6% and 10.3%, respectively. On a monthly basis, food prices dropped 0.6%, mainly weighed down by fruit and vegetables (-2.9%) and grocery food (-0.8%).

Industrial production in the United States dropped 0.5% month-over-month in March 2026, missing market expectations for a 0.1% gain and after moving up 0.7% in February. It marks the biggest fall in industrial activity since September 2024. Manufacturing output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production, decreased 0.1% after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in February and also missing forecast of a 0.1% gain. Mining output fell 1.2% in March. The index for utilities contracted 2.3%, with reductions in the output of both electric and natural gas utilities. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.7 in April 2026 from 18.1 in the prior month, hitting its strongest level since January 2025. The data surprised analysts on the upside, comfortably exceeding expectations for a drop to 10. The current shipments index rose 12 points to 34.0, while the index for current new orders jumped 24 points to 33.0. Meanwhile, the employment index fell 6 points to -5.1 in April. Both price indexes increased for the second month, continuing to run well above their long-term averages and marking their highest levels since August. The prices paid index rose 15 points to 59.3 in April, while the current prices received index rose 12 points to 33.5. Looking forward, the firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators have moved down.

The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 207K in the week ended April 11th 2026 from a downwardly revised 218K in the previous week which was the highest value since early February. The figure came in below forecasts of 215K, marking the largest weekly decline since February and signaling that layoffs remain limited, as both the labour market and the broader economy continue to demonstrate resilience. The 4-week moving average which excludes week-to-week volatility was 209,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 209.25K. Meanwhile, continuing claims which are seen as a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, went up to 1818K in the week ended April 4th, an increase of 31K from the previous week's revised level.