The Bank of Russia raised unexpectedly its benchmark one-week repo rate by 25 bps to 7.75 percent on December 14th, saying the decision is aimed at limiting inflation risks that remain elevated, especially over the short-term horizon on the back of the upcoming VAT rate increase. Policymakers expect annual inflation to be 5-5.5 percent by the end of 2019, before returning to 4 percent in 2020. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7.31 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5 percent in June of 2010.

Interest Rate in Russia is expected to be 7.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Russia to stand at 7.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Interest Rate is projected to trend around 6.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Russia Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-07-27 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
2018-09-14 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.5% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
2018-10-26 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
2018-12-14 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
2019-02-08 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75%
2019-03-22 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision
2019-04-26 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision



Russia Hikes Key Interest Rate to 7.75%



The Bank of Russia raised unexpectedly its benchmark one-week repo rate by 25 bps to 7.75 percent on December 14th, saying the decision is aimed at limiting inflation risks that remain elevated, especially over the short-term horizon on the back of the upcoming VAT rate increase. Policymakers expect annual inflation to be 5-5.5 percent by the end of 2019, before returning to 4 percent in 2020.

Excerpts from the Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

At the end of 2018, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia’s target. In November, the annual consumer price growth rose to 3.8% (3.9%, according to the estimates as of 10 December). This November’s upward movement of inflation was largely driven by annual food price growth accelerating from 2.7% to 3.5%. This was supported by changes in the balance of supply and demand in certain food markets. Prices are further adjusting to the ruble exchange rate that has weakened since the beginning of the year. Consumer price growth is starting to be affected by the VAT increase scheduled to take effect from 1 January 2019. According to Bank of Russia estimates, most inflation indicators reflecting the most sustainable price movements are growing.

The price expectations of businesses increased, triggered by the weakening of the ruble which took place since the beginning of the year and the forthcoming VAT rise. Household inflation expectations rose in November. Uncertainty persists over their subsequent movements.

The Bank of Russia’s forecast assumes consumer price growth rate at 3.9-4.2% by the end of 2018. The VAT hike and the weakening of the ruble that took place in 2018 are expected to trigger a temporary acceleration in annual inflation, which will peak in the first six months of 2019 and run at 5.0-5.5% by the end of 2019. Quarterly year-on-year consumer price growth will draw close to 4% as early as the second half of 2019. Annual inflation will slow down to 4% in the first half of 2020 when the effects of the ruble’s weakening and the VAT rise peter out. The increase in the key rate is proactive in nature and will help limit the risks of firm inflation anchoring at the level significantly exceeding the Bank of Russia’s target. The forecast takes into account the Bank of Russia’s decision to resume regular foreign currency purchases in the domestic market under the fiscal rule from 15 January 2019.

Russian economic growth slowed down slightly, remaining close to its potential. In 2018 Q3, annual GDP growth slipped to 1.5%, consistent with the Bank of Russia’s forecast, mostly due to the high base effect in agriculture. Industrial output continued its annual growth in October with sectoral trends remaining mixed. Consumer demand growth slowed down, as compared to previous months. Its expansion is largely based on the non-food sales. Investment activity continued to rise in the third quarter. The Bank of Russia keeps unchanged its 2018 annual GDP growth forecast of 1.5-2%.

The Bank of Russia’s view of the Russian economy’s mid-term growth prospects has remained mainly unchanged. Due to the budget rule, the decrease in the 2019 average annual oil price from 63 to 55 US dollars per barrel in the baseline scenario will have little influence on macroeconomic fundamentals. In 2019, the forthcoming VAT increase might have a slight constraining effect on business activity (mostly in the beginning of the year). The newly attracted budgetary funds will be used to boost government spending, including spending on investments, as early as 2019. As a result, according to the Bank of Russia forecast, GDP growth in 2019 will range between 1.2% and 1.7%. The following years might see higher growth rates as the planned structural measures are implemented.


Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
12/14/2018 10:44:58 AM



Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 7.75 7.50 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 8.10 8.20 45.30 4.20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 9048.40 9138.70 9149.90 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 20485.02 20575.52 20669.58 106.31 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 44219.00 44253.40 44369.10 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 462104.00 459563.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2858.10 2360.20 2888.90 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 26470737.00 26184172.00 26470737.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.21 5.04 101.96 5.00 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00 8.00 10.00 0.50 percent [+]


Russia Interest Rate

In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
7.75 7.50 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2018 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 59.16 Dec/18
Turkey 24.00 Dec/18
Mexico 8.00 Nov/18
Russia 7.75 Dec/18
South Africa 6.75 Nov/18
Brazil 6.50 Dec/18
India 6.50 Dec/18
Indonesia 6.00 Nov/18
China 4.35 Nov/18
Saudi Arabia 2.75 Nov/18
United States 2.25 Nov/18
Singapore 1.97 Nov/18
Canada 1.75 Dec/18
South Korea 1.75 Nov/18
Australia 1.50 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.75 Nov/18
Euro Area 0.00 Dec/18
France 0.00 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Italy 0.00 Dec/18
Netherlands 0.00 Dec/18
Spain 0.00 Dec/18
Japan -0.10 Nov/18
Switzerland -0.75 Dec/18


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