Russia Interest Rate2022 Data - 2003-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Calendar

The Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 300bps to 14% on April 29th, following a similar move earlier in the month and surprising markets who expected a smaller 200bps reduction. The bank said that with price and financial stability risks no longer on the rise, conditions have allowed for the key rate reduction. Recent weekly data indicate a slowdown in current price growth rates on the back of a strengthening of the ruble and a cooling of consumer activity. Still, the external environment for the Russian economy remains challenging and significantly constrains economic activity. If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia sees room for key rate reduction in 2022. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will reach 18.0–23.0% in 2022, slowing down to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 and returning to 4% in 2024.

The Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 300bps to 17% during an unscheduled monetary policy meeting held on April 8th, reflecting a change in the balance of risks of accelerated consumer price growth, decline in economic activity and financial stability risks. External conditions for the Russian economy are still challenging, considerably constraining economic activity. Financial stability risks are still present, but have ceased to increase for the time being, including owing to the adopted capital control measures. Annual inflation will continue to rise due to the base effect. Yet, the latest weekly data point to a noticeable slowdown in the current price growth rates, including owing to the ruble’s exchange rate dynamics. The tightening of monetary conditions already in place is partly offset by the lending support programmes launched by the Government and the Bank of Russia, but it will continue to limit pro-inflationary risks.

The Central Bank of Russia held its benchmark interest rate at 20% as expected during its March 2022 meeting, saying the 115bps hike in February helped sustain financial stability and prevented uncontrolled price rises. Policymakers increased borrowing costs to the highest in almost two years in February amid the broadening fallout of Western sanctions in retaliation against Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The central bank said the Russian economy is entering the phase of a large-scale structural transformation, which will be accompanied by a temporary but inevitable period of increased inflation, that is expected to return to 4% in 2024.