The Bank of Russia held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 7.5 percent on October 26th after an unexpected 25 bps hike in the previous meeting, saying pro-inflationary risks remain elevated and uncertainties over future external conditions persist. Policymakers expect annual inflation to be 5-5.5 percent in 2019, before returning to 4 percent in 2020. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7.31 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5 percent in June of 2010.

Interest Rate in Russia is expected to be 7.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Russia to stand at 6.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Interest Rate is projected to trend around 5.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Russia Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-06-15 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
2018-07-27 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
2018-09-14 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.5% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
2018-10-26 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
2018-12-14 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
2018-12-14 12:00 PM Monetary Policy Report



Russia Holds Key Interest Rate at 7.5%


The Bank of Russia held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 7.5 percent on October 26th after an unexpected 25 bps hike in the previous meeting, saying pro-inflationary risks remain elevated and uncertainties over future external conditions persist. Policymakers expect annual inflation to be 5-5.5 percent in 2019, before returning to 4 percent in 2020.

Excerpts from the Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

Annual inflation is on track to return to 4%, consistent with the Bank of Russia forecast. The annual rate of consumer price growth totalled 3.4% in September (3.5% according to the 22 October estimate). This September’s upward movement of inflation was largely driven by annual food price growth accelerating to 2.5%. This was supported by changes in the balance of supply and demand in certain food markets. Also, prices are adjusting to the ruble exchange rate that has weakened since the beginning of the year. According to Bank of Russia estimates, most annual inflation indicators reflecting the most sustainable price movements are growing.

The price expectations of businesses remain heightened, triggered by the weakening of the ruble which took place since the beginning of the year and the forthcoming VAT rise. Household inflation expectations, albeit lower in October, are markedly above the current year’s average Q1-Q2 readings. Uncertainty persists over their subsequent movements.

The domestic financial market saw a stabilisation in the second half of September and in early October, with exchange rate volatility declining. This was helped by the Bank of Russia’s September decision to raise the key rate and suspend foreign currency purchases in the domestic market under the fiscal rule through the end of 2018, as well as a certain stabilisation in the external environment.

The Bank of Russia forecast assumes consumer price growth rate at 3.8–4.2% by the end of 2018. One-off factors are expected to trigger a temporary acceleration in annual inflation, which will peak in the first six months of 2019 and run at 5.0-5.5% by the end of 2019. Quarterly year-on-year consumer price growth rate will draw close to 4% as early as the second half of 2019. Annual inflation will slow down to 4% in the first half of 2020 when the effects of the ruble’s weakening and the VAT rise peter out.

The Russian economy is growing at rates close to its potential. This September saw a rise in industrial output; sectoral output trends remained mixed, however. Consumer demand expanded at moderate rates, mainly on the back of non-food sales. Bank of Russia estimates show that investment growth was continued in the third quarter. The Bank of Russia keeps unchanged its 2018 annual GDP growth forecast of 1.5-2%.

The balance of risks remains skewed towards pro-inflationary risks, especially over a short-term horizon. The stabilisation in the domestic financial market comes with continuing uncertainty over future external conditions and their impact on financial asset prices.


Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
10/26/2018 10:43:32 AM



Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 7.50 7.50 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 8.10 8.20 45.30 4.20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 9048.40 9138.70 9149.90 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 20485.02 20575.52 20669.58 106.31 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 44219.00 44253.40 44369.10 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 462104.00 459563.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2530.30 2526.50 2888.90 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 26470737.00 26184172.00 26470737.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.21 5.04 101.96 5.00 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00 8.00 10.00 0.50 percent [+]


Russia Interest Rate

In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
7.50 7.50 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2018 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 59.16 Dec/18
Turkey 24.00 Nov/18
Mexico 8.00 Nov/18
Russia 7.50 Nov/18
South Africa 6.75 Nov/18
Brazil 6.50 Oct/18
India 6.50 Dec/18
Indonesia 6.00 Nov/18
China 4.35 Oct/18
Saudi Arabia 2.75 Oct/18
United States 2.25 Nov/18
Canada 1.75 Dec/18
South Korea 1.75 Nov/18
Australia 1.50 Dec/18
Singapore 1.45 Oct/18
United Kingdom 0.75 Nov/18
Euro Area 0.00 Nov/18
France 0.00 Nov/18
Germany 0.00 Nov/18
Italy 0.00 Nov/18
Netherlands 0.00 Nov/18
Spain 0.00 Nov/18
Japan -0.10 Oct/18
Switzerland -0.75 Nov/18


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