US stocks extended their gains on Thursday, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.1% to fresh record highs. The Nasdaq hovered near the record levels reached in the previous session, while the Dow Jones added more than 110 points, moving closer to pre-war levels. Investors remained focused on corporate earnings, while optimism grew that a potential agreement between the US and Iran could soon end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Energy, materials, and real estate led sector gains, while healthcare and consumer discretionary lagged. PepsiCo rose 0.3% after reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue, while Bank of New York Mellon gained 1.3% on strong results. In contrast, Charles Schwab fell 3.9% as its results disappointed, and Abbott Laboratories dropped nearly 4% following weak guidance. Netflix edged 0.3% lower ahead of its earnings release later in the day. Megacap performance was mixed.

Industrial production in the United States dropped 0.5% month-over-month in March 2026, missing market expectations for a 0.1% gain and after moving up 0.7% in February. It marks the biggest fall in industrial activity since September 2024. Manufacturing output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production, decreased 0.1% after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in February and also missing forecast of a 0.1% gain. Mining output fell 1.2% in March. The index for utilities contracted 2.3%, with reductions in the output of both electric and natural gas utilities. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.7 in April 2026 from 18.1 in the prior month, hitting its strongest level since January 2025. The data surprised analysts on the upside, comfortably exceeding expectations for a drop to 10. The current shipments index rose 12 points to 34.0, while the index for current new orders jumped 24 points to 33.0. Meanwhile, the employment index fell 6 points to -5.1 in April. Both price indexes increased for the second month, continuing to run well above their long-term averages and marking their highest levels since August. The prices paid index rose 15 points to 59.3 in April, while the current prices received index rose 12 points to 33.5. Looking forward, the firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators have moved down.

Brazil's IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.6% month-on-month in February 2026, following a 0.8% gain in January and largely in line with forecasts of 0.5%. The industrial sector led expansion, up 1.2% after a 0.4% rise in January, followed by the taxes index, up 0.8% after a 0.5% gain. Agriculture and livestock rebounded 0.2% after contracting 1.5% in January, while the services sector rose 0.3% following a 0.8% gain. On an annual basis, the index contracted 1.3% in February.

ECB policymakers acknowledged that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth, although the central bank was well positioned to navigate this uncertainty, minutes from the March ECB meeting showed. The environment could change rapidly, and uncertainty regarding both the war and its economic impact was likely to remain very high in the future, but it was also possible that this uncertainty might be resolved over the coming weeks or months. Although the near-term inflation outlook had been revised up substantially, inflation was still seen to stabilise around the 2% target over the medium term. Against this background, keeping rates unchanged in March while retaining optionality for future meetings was a prudent approach. The meeting-by-meeting approach without any pre-commitment to a particular rate path was especially helpful at this juncture.

China’s economy expanded 5.0% yoy in Q1 2026, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 and beating forecasts of 4.8%. It marked the fastest annual growth in three quarters, supported largely by resilient export performance although Beijing braces for potential fallout from the Iran conflict. So far, the economy has managed to absorb the shock with limited disruption, supported by ample oil reserves, a diversified energy mix, and state controls that help contain price volatility. However, the underlying momentum appeared uneven in March, as industrial output rose more than expected, but retail sales growth missed estimates. Exports slowed sharply in the month while imports surged. Meantime, fixed-asset investment in the January to March period continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Despite the stronger start, economists expect China’s growth momentum to weaken over the rest of the year, weighed down by mounting external headwinds, particularly if the Middle East crisis is prolonged.