Mexico’s trade balance posted a surplus of $605 million in August 2026, widening from $209 million a year earlier but falling well short of forecasts of $1.4 billion. Total merchandise exports reached $78.01 billion, up 40.4% year over year. Manufactured goods exports rose 42.6%, led by electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (122.3%), mining and metallurgical products (50.4%), plastic and rubber products (10.6%), food, beverages and tobacco (10%), and specialized machinery and equipment for various industries (7.2%). Agricultural and fishing exports fell 1.6%, while oil exports declined 2.8%. Merchandise imports totaled $77.40 billion, with consumer goods imports up 8.9%, intermediate goods purchases surging 41.9%, and capital goods imports rising 6.9%. In the first eight months of 2026, the trade balance recorded a $9.86 billion surplus.

India’s industrial production growth accelerated to 8.0% year-on-year in August 2026, up from an upwardly revised 7.4% in July and well above market expectations of 6.5%. Manufacturing output rose 9.0%, accelerating from 8.2% in July, led by electrical equipment (30.9%), motor vehicles (25.2%), rubber and plastics products (21.4%), computer, electronic and optical products (19.3%), fabricated metal products (16.9%), textiles (13.1%), and machinery and equipment (10.3%). Among other major industries, basic metals production increased 2.4% and food products rose 2.8%, while output contracted in coke and refined petroleum products (-0.6%) and chemicals and chemical products (-0.5%). Elsewhere, electricity and gas supply growth accelerated to 12.3% from 8.7% in July, while mining and quarrying output fell 5.6%, following a 0.9% decline in the previous month.

US stock futures were lower on Monday, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures falling 1% and Dow Jones futures losing around 190 points. Traders returned from the weekend to another rise in oil prices as hopes for a deal between the US and Iran faded. Meanwhile, Treasury yields continued to climb to multi-year highs amid expectations that higher energy prices could put further pressure on inflation and increase the likelihood of additional rate hikes. Key economic data due this week, including the PCE and the jobs report, will provide further insight into the health of the US economy. In premarket trading, Nvidia fell around 0.4% despite unveiling a new software platform to allow AI developers to set safeguards for agents. Apple (-0.2%), Alphabet (-1%), Microsoft (-0.3%), Amazon (-0.8%), Broadcom (-1.2%), Meta (-3%) and Tesla (-0.8%) also traded lower. Micron Technology fell around 2.2% and AMD (-2.7%) and Intel (-3.3%) were also under pressure.

European natural gas prices rose 3% to above €74/MWh, as Qatar’s prolonged LNG supply disruptions and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about gas supplies. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison through December, while Pakistan has reportedly secured an extension into November because of difficulties shipping gas through the waterway. Iran has maintained its conditions for reopening the strait after US President Donald Trump rejected its latest proposal, although he indicated that talks could resume this week. The prolonged uncertainty is raising concerns about Europe’s ability to replenish gas inventories before winter. EU officials urged member states to conserve energy and continue filling storage. European facilities are around 71% full, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany’s storage sites are just over 57% full. LNG imports have increased since mid-August, but supply competition remains a key risk.

The euro traded around $1.138, close to its weakest level in two months, as the US dollar remained supported by fading optimism over progress in US-Iran talks and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Iran said it would not soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump rejected its proposal. Speaking to Axios, Trump said Iran had “overplayed its hand” and that he expected negotiations to resume this week. On the monetary policy front, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, alongside economic data pointing to robust growth and a resilient labor market, have reinforced expectations of tighter US monetary policy. Meanwhile, in Europe, the US-Iran conflict and recent energy-price developments have continued to fuel concerns over renewed inflationary pressure. Money markets are now pricing in roughly 100 basis points of interest-rate hikes by the end of 2027.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed above 3.6%, touching its highest level since June 2009, as elevated energy prices fuel concerns over renewed inflationary pressure and hawkish central-bank signals push up rate expectations. Brent crude rose above $106 a barrel amid fading optimism over progress in US-Iran talks. Iran said it would not soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump rejected its proposal. Speaking to Axios, Trump said Iran had “overplayed its hand” and that he expected negotiations to resume this week. Money markets are now pricing in roughly 100 basis points of ECB rate hikes by late 2027. Investors in the US and UK have similarly increased bets on further monetary tightening following hawkish comments from policymakers and data pointing to resilient growth. Meanwhile, concerns over debt affordability in heavily indebted economies, particularly France and Italy, have added to pressure on European bonds ahead of elections next year.