The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 in early October 2026, according to the preliminary estimate, its lowest level since May’s record low and well below market expectations of 47.6. The current economic conditions subindex plunged to an all-time low of 44.7, as buying conditions for durable goods deteriorated sharply amid persistently high prices and borrowing costs. Lower-income consumers and households with smaller stock portfolios recorded particularly steep declines, reflecting their limited capacity to absorb further price increases. Frustration over the cost of living continues to mount, with consumers across the political spectrum increasingly perceiving a deterioration in the economic outlook since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, inflation expectations edged higher, with year-ahead expectations rising to 4.7% from 4.6% in September, while long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.5% from 3.4%.

US stock indices closed higher on Friday amid expectations of a strong earnings season. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%, both nearing their record highs, while the Dow added 423 points. Robust results across sectors have helped drive equity returns this year. Wall Street’s largest banks are expected to report nearly $19 billion in stock-trading revenue when they release quarterly earnings next week. Goldman Sachs (+1.4%), which reports Tuesday, is forecast to post $5.1 billion, followed by Morgan Stanley (+1.4%) at $4.9 billion, according to estimates. JPMorgan (+0.5%) is expected to report $4.5 billion, while Bank of America (+1.4%) is forecast to generate $2.6 billion. AI Hyperscalers gained on expectations that OpenAI will exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. Alphabet rose 1%, Microsoft added 2.4% and Amazon gained 3.3%. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq shed 0.1% and the Dow gained 585 points.

Employment in Canada declined by 68,300 in September 2026, the steepest decline in seven months and missing expectations for a 7,000 increase, up from a 41,700 decline in August. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, with both full-time and part-time employment falling by 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively. Public sector employment dropped by 70,000, extending its decline to a fourth consecutive month, while private sector employment was little changed for the second month in a row. Self-employment also edged down by 23,000. Youth employment fell by 48,000, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. By industry, employment decreased in educational services (-2.2%), health care and social assistance (-0.8%), and manufacturing (-0.7%). By province, the largest declines were recorded in Quebec (-1.1%), British Columbia (-0.7%), and Manitoba (-0.6%). The employment rate edged down to 60.6% from 60.8%. On an annual basis, employment was up by 95,000 or 0.5%.

Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.58% in September 2026 from 4.22% in August, slightly above forecasts of 4.50%. Price growth accelerated for food and beverages (4.66% vs. 3.53%), household articles (2.08% vs. 1.40%), clothing (3.34% vs. 3.25%), transport (3.94% vs. 3.04%) and communication (2.79% vs. 1.96%). Transport costs were partly driven by vehicle fuel inflation, which rose to 4.97% from 4.41% as international oil prices surged amid Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, price growth moderated for housing (4.22% vs. 4.90%), health and personal care (5.75% vs. 5.84%), personal expenses (5.90% vs. 6.16%) and education (5.95% vs. 5.98%). Month over month, consumer prices rose 0.82%, rebounding from a 0.32% decline in August. Inflation reached 3.95% year to date.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 5.26% on Friday, following a volatile session on Thursday, when the benchmark yield fell 6 bps from its highest level since 2002. Investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices and inflation. Oil prices eased after US President Trump pledged to refrain from attacking Iran until after the midterm elections. Nevertheless, markets continued to price in the possibility that the Fed would need to keep interest rates elevated for longer to contain persistent inflationary pressures. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady this month stood at around 81%, while the odds of a 25bps rate hike in December were approximately 69%. For the week, the 10-year Treasury yield was down about 5bps. Meanwhile, strong demand at this week’s 10-year and 30-year Treasury note auctions suggested that investors remained willing to purchase longer-dated government debt despite the recent sell-off.

Switzerland's consumer confidence index edged up to -36 in September 2026 from -37 in the same month a year earlier, pointing to an improvement in household confidence but coming in below market expectations of -31. The improvement was driven by a more positive economic outlook, with the corresponding index rising to -43 from -53. However, this was partly offset by a deterioration in the financial outlook, which fell to -31 from -28 in September last year. Meanwhile, sentiment regarding the past financial situation weakened slightly to -42 from -40. The index measuring whether it was a good time to make major purchases also declined to -27 from -25, suggesting households remained cautious about discretionary spending. The overall reading weakened from the previous month, when the index stood at -33.