WTI crude oil futures rose toward $98 per barrel as investors monitored the latest escalations in the Middle Eastern conflict. Markets are now pricing in actual supply destruction as Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields and drone strikes hit Kuwaiti refineries. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump rejected a ceasefire in Iran and expressed confidence the Strait of Hormuz would open itself despite the Pentagon deploying thousands of additional Marines amid weighing plans to seize Kharg Island. Geopolitical risk premiums expanded following drone strikes on refineries in Kuwait and reports of heavy preparations for ground troops. Markets are now discounting a diplomatic resolution and instead preparing for a prolonged disruption to global energy flows. Geopolitical risk premiums expanded despite the IEA releasing 400 million barrels from reserves as plunging tanker traffic outweighed emergency inventory measures. Also US crude stocks at Cushing rose to 27.52 million barrels.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, the Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.8% to six-month lows while the Dow Jones lost 0.8% to four-month lows on Friday amid escalating Middle East conflict and surging energy prices. This downturn drove the major averages into correction territory as West Texas Intermediate futures climbed further following reports that Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields. Sentiment soured further as the Pentagon prepared to deploy additional Marines to the region while the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% earlier this week. Micron Technology fell 4.8% while Supermicro tumbled 33.3% as it faced ongoing pressure following chip smuggling charges against its CEO. Conversely, FedEx added 1% on strong guidance and energy majors like Exxon Mobil was 1% higher amid the crude spike.

The war in the Persian Gulf will remain the driver of market movements as energy exports from the region are all but halted ahead of the fourth week of conflict. Economic data in the US will be headlined by leading indicators in the S&P PMI, Michigan consumer confidence index, and results from surveys by multiple regional Fed banks. Flash PMIs will also be featured in the Euro Area and its largest economies, the UK, Japan, Australia, and India. Local confidence indicators will be posted in Germany and the Euro Area for more hints on the war's impact on sentiment. Consumer inflation reports are due in Japan, the UK, and Australia, while Spain will be the first major economy with March results. In turn, central bank policy decisions will take place in Norway and Mexico.

Gold tumbled 2% to $4,570 per ounce on Friday, on track for its largest weekly decline since 1983, as escalating Middle East tensions sent energy prices soaring and dashed hopes for near-term interest rate cuts. Prices extended their decline after reports that the Pentagon is deploying three warships and thousands of Marines to the region, prompting traders to price in a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by October amid fears of sustained inflation. The safe-haven metal has fallen every week since the US-Israel strikes on Iran last month, pressured by rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking as investors liquidated positions to offset losses elsewhere. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan held rates steady but signaled readiness to tighten policy further if inflationary pressures persist.

Retail sales in Canada are estimated to have increased by 0.9% from the previous month in February of 2026, according to a preliminary estimate. If confirmed, that would extend the 1.1% increase in January to C$69.7 billion, which was revised lower from the 1.5% estimate, rebounding from the 0.5% drop in the last month of 2025. Such an increase would be the largest back-to-back increase since December of 2024. Retail turnover in January was higher for general merchandise retailers (3% to C$9.4 billion), sports, hobby, musical instrument and book stores (2.6% to C$3.9 billion), health and personal care retailers (1.2% to C$5.9 billion), and building material and garden equipment suppliers (1.3% to C$3.9 billion). Motor vehicles and parts turnover, which are usually volatile, jumped by 2% to C$19.3 billion. In turn, gasoline station turnover dropped by 0.4% to C$6.7 billion). From the previous year, retail turnover rose by 1.5% in February.

The UK’s total order book balance improved slightly to -27 in March 2026, up from -28 in February and exceeding market expectations of -29, according to the CBI. While the decline in industrial orders is the slowest since September, levels remain weak. The output expectations sub-index for the next three months rose to -3 from -12, while expected price growth eased to +12 from +26. Cameron Martin, CBI senior economist, warned that the Middle East conflict is driving up energy costs and threatening further supply chain disruptions, adding to existing cost pressures on manufacturers.