Crude oil traded around $75 per barrel on Thursday after falling for three straight sessions, as Iran and Oman reached an agreement on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, fueling expectations of increased energy flows from the Middle East. A joint statement from both countries is currently under review and in the final drafting stage, with the proposed route expected to remain operational for two to four months, although Tehran stressed that the agreement does not amount to a full reopening of the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, US officials continued to express confidence that a deal with Iran was nearing, though investors remained cautious about the durability of any lasting peace in the region. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen also claimed they had targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened other vessels in the Red Sea, underscoring ongoing risks to regional shipping.

The ISM Services PMI in the US edged up to 54.1 in July 2026 from 54 in June, slightly below forecasts of 54.5, while continuing to point to expansion in the services sector. Business activity (59.1 vs 55.4), new orders (57.2 vs 55.1) and inventories (51.4 vs 51.2) increased faster but employment returned to contraction territory after only one month in expansion (47.4 vs 51.2). In addition, price pressures increased (70.3 vs 67.7), with petroleum-related products and plastics again reported as commodities up in price, although the number of commodities reported as down in price increased to six, up from three the previous month. Backlog of orders (50.9 vs 54.9) and supplier deliveries (52.8 vs 54.4) slowed. “Tariff impacts and the Middle East conflict continued to be mentioned by respondents, but much less frequently than in prior reports. The World Cup was again cited in the comments regarding increased business activity and new orders”, according to Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM.

US stocks closed near record levels on Wednesday as an improving macroeconomic backdrop and strong corporate earnings supported sentiment. The S&P 500 inched down 0.2%, closing near yesterday's record. while the Dow added 263 points to reach a record 54,349. Crude oil prices extended their decline after Iran said it had reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, while US officials signaled progress in talks aimed at restoring trade flows through the region, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation. Credit sensitive sectors, including major banks, outperformed. Arista Networks rose 3.6% after reporting stronger-than-expected revenue. Eli Lilly gained 4.9% after beating revenue estimates and raising its full-year guidance. In contrast, the Nasdaq slipped 0.8%. SpaceX slumped 13.6%, giving back the previous session's gains, while AMD dropped 7% despite doubling data center revenue.

The S&P Global Composite PMI for Brazil fell to 48.8 in July 2026 from 50.7 in June, signaling a renewed contraction in private sector activity. Although modest, the pace of reduction was the fastest since October 2025, reflecting a sharper decline in new orders and weaker output, particularly in manufacturing. Firms continued to trim workforce in response to weak demand, marking a second consecutive monthly decrease in employment. Input cost and output price inflation both eased to their lowest levels in four months but stayed high by historical standards. Cost pressures were stronger in services, while manufacturers raised selling prices more aggressively.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for loans of up to $806,500 in the US increased by 5bps to 6.81% in the week ended July 31st 2026, reaching the highest level in a year, after soaring by 7bps in the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The rise tracked higher Treasury yields, while renewed hostilities in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, raising inflation concerns. Meanwhile, mortgage applications decreased 2.9%, extending a 6.4% drop in the previous week. Applications to purchase a home slumped 3.6% and those to refinance a home loan dropped 1.9%, after decreases of 3.6% and 9.9% respectively in the previous week.

Producer prices in the Euro Area decreased 0.3% month-over-month in June 2026, the first fall in four months, following a 0.2% gain in May and in line with expectations. Energy cost decreased 1.5%, after a 1% fall in May amid a fall in oil prices after a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Prices also rose at a slower pace for intermediate (0.3% vs 1.4%), capital (0.2% vs 0.3%) and durable goods (0.2% vs 0.3%). In addition, prices stalled for non-durable goods, following a 0.1% fall in May. Among the bloc's largest economies, prices fell in Germany (-0.3%), France (-0.6%), and the Netherlands (-1.1%) and stalled in Italy while rising 0.1% in Spain. Year-on-year, producer prices went up 4.6%, easing from a 5.9% rise in May which was the highest since March 2023.