Brent crude oil hovered at around $67.8 per barrel on Monday after posting the first back-to-back weekly decline of the year, as investors closely watch a second round of US-Iran talks. This comes as the US increases its military presence in the region, with President Trump repeatedly warning of potential strikes if a nuclear deal is not reached. Over the weekend, Iran has signaled willingness to make concessions on its nuclear program if Washington engages on sanctions. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian drone attack hit a Russian Black Sea port ahead of fresh US-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine scheduled to begin on Tuesday. Despite these geopolitical factors, oil prices remain under pressure due to ample global supply, with reports suggesting some OPEC+ nations see room to resume supply hikes in April. The IEA also reaffirmed its projection of a significant surplus in 2026 and lowered its forecast for oil demand growth.

India’s merchandise trade deficit surged to $34.68 billion in January 2026, up from $23.43 billion a year earlier and well above market expectations of $26 billion. The gap was the largest since October’s record $41.68 billion, coming just weeks before New Delhi struck an interim trade deal with the US aimed at lowering tariffs. Imports jumped 19.2% year-on-year to $71.24 billion, driven largely by higher purchases of gold and silver, while exports rose only 0.6% to $36.56 billion. Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump announced a reduction in tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%, offering relief to exporters and policymakers. Under the agreement, India has committed to reducing Russian oil imports and plans to more than double its annual purchases of US goods. The deal followed a trade pact with the EU, reflecting India’s broader push to strengthen trade ties with major global partners.

European natural gas futures fell 5% to below €31 per megawatt hour, the lowest in five weeks, as milder weather forecasts eased near-term demand and reduced pressure on tight supplies. Weather models point to above normal temperatures across parts of Europe in the coming days, offering relief after a volatile start to the year and slowing withdrawals from storage. Inventories across the European Union remain low at under 34% capacity, the weakest since the 2022 energy crisis, with levels particularly depleted in Germany at below 24%. Additionally, natural gas prices in the United States fell to a four-month low on warmer weather, increasing LNG availability for export to Europe.

European equities moved higher in thin trading on Monday, rebounding after two sessions of declines from record levels, supported by a stronger-than-usual earnings season. The Stoxx 50 advanced 0.4% to 6,010 points, while the broader Stoxx 600 gained 0.2% to 619 points. So far, just over 60% of European companies have topped profit expectations, well above the typical quarterly average of around 54%. No major earnings releases are scheduled for Monday, but attention will turn in the coming days to results from Euronext, Orange, Airbus, Moncler and Repsol, as well as from Europe’s largest miners. Trading in Dassault Systèmes shares was briefly halted Monday after a sharp drop, following AlphaValue’s downgrade from Buy to Reduce over concerns about AI monetization. Elsewhere, focus will shift to UK labor market data and inflation figures later this week, as well as the release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes, which may provide further insight into the outlook for monetary policy.

Switzerland’s economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, rebounding from a 0.5% contraction in the previous quarter, flash estimates showed. The data points to underlying resilience in the Swiss economy following the initial imposition of US President Trump’s 39% tariff, which resulted to the largest contraction since the pandemic. A trade deal reached in mid-November, reducing tariffs to 15%, raised hopes that the impact of tariffs would be contained. Growth was primarily driven by a moderate rise in the services sector, while the industrial sector stagnated. For 2025 as a whole, GDP increased by 1.4%, following a 1.2% rise in the previous year, but still below its long-term average growth (1.8% since 1981), as a challenging international environment weighed on the export-oriented manufacturing sector.

Japan’s GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4 2025, rebounding from a 0.7% drop in Q3 but missing market forecasts of a 0.4% increase, flash data showed. While business investment recovered (0.2% vs -0.3% in Q3), private consumption rose the least in a year (0.1% vs 0.4) amid persistent cost pressures, notably food prices. Meanwhile, government spending was subdued (0.1% vs 0.1%), and net trade did not contribute to growth, with both exports (-0.3% vs -1.4%) and imports (-0.3% vs -0.1%) declining. The latest reading suggests the drag from U.S. tariffs, with a baseline of 15%, is gradually easing, while diplomatic tensions with China persist. It also comes as Tokyo prepares to ramp up investment through targeted public spending following a sweeping election victory.