The trade deficit in the US widened slightly to $57.3 billion in February 2026 from a revised $54.7 billion in February but less than forecasts of a $59.2 billion shortfall. Exports increased 4.2% to a new record high of $314.8 billion led by nonmonetary gold and natural gas. Imports went up 4.3% to $372.1 billion, the highest in eleven months, led by computers, computer accessories, trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles, crude oil, semiconductors, pharmaceutical preparations and charges for the use of intellectual property. The largest deficit was by far recorded with Taiwan ($-21.1 billion vs $-17.3 billion in January), followed by Mexico ($-16.8 billion vs $-12.8 billion), Vietnam ($-16.5 billion vs $-19 billion) and China ($-13.1 billion vs $-12.5 billion). The gap with the EU decreased to $5.1 billion from $6.1 billion and the shortfall with Canada also narrowed to $0.74 billion from $2.7 billion.

Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 9,000 from the previous week to 202,000 in the fourth week of March, well below the median market estimate of 212,000. It nearly tied the two-year low of 201,000 in the first week of January, which is subject to volatile readings due to the holidays, to consolidate the low firing trend in the labor market that has prevented the Federal Reserve from extending its cutting cycle this year. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims, which serve as proxy for outstanding unemployment in the US, edged higher by 25,000 to 1,841,000 in the third week of March, but remained below the average from the second half of last year. Initial claims filed by federal employees, which have been under scrutiny as markets measure the impact of government shutdowns, rose by 38 to 622.

Brazil's industrial production rose 0.9% month-over-month in February 2026, beating forecasts of 0.7% and marking the second consecutive monthly gain. Expansion was broad-based, reaching most surveyed sectors. Motor vehicles, trailers and bodies led gains at 6.8%, followed by coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels at 2.5%. Other strong performers included machinery and equipment at 6.8%, furniture at 7.2%, beverages at 3.4%, computer and electronic products at 3.1%, textile products at 4.4%, and maintenance and repair services at 3.4%. Extractive industries and food products also advanced at 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. Pharmaceutical and chemical products declined 5.5%, exerting the main downward pressure. Year-over-year, industry fell 0.7%, following a 0.2% advance in January.

US equity futures pulled back on Thursday as escalatory rhetoric by President Trump supported concerns of a prolonged war in Iran and higher risks of a global energy shock. Contracts for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 were more than 1% lower. The President pledged more aggressive attacks on Iran in the coming weeks, prompting a similar response from Iranian authorities and prolonging expectations that energy exports from the Persian Gulf will remain halted, in addition to threats against energy infrastructure in the region. The inflationary risks tied to the conflict drove Treasury yields to rebound across the curve, pressuring equities that have benefited from the recovery in credit costs and risk sentiment this week. Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla were almost 3% down pre-market. Meanwhile, Estee Lauder dropped 2% as talks on its merger with Puig advanced.

US-based employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March 2026, above 48,307 in February but well below 275,240 a year earlier. The technology sector recorded by far the highest number of job cuts in March (18,720), followed by pharmaceuticals (5,356), education (5,258), and financial (5,114). Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts, with 15,341 announced during the month, 25% of total cuts. Considering Q1, employers announced 217,362 job cuts, the lowest Q1 total since 2022, and down 16% from Q4 2025. “Removing the wave of federal layoffs announced in February and March of last year, job cut announcements in 2026 are closely following the pattern of 2025. Last year it was Government, Retail, and Technology. This year, it’s Technology, Transportation, and Healthcare,” said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed back above 3%, nearing its highest level since May 2011, as escalating Middle East tensions weighed on European bonds. President Donald Trump’s prime-time address lacking a clear timeline for resolving the conflict fueled the sell-off. While Trump indicated the US operation was nearly complete, his pledge of more aggressive actions, including potential strikes on electrical plants in the coming weeks, deepened market unease. With no new rationale for the war and mounting uncertainty, inflation concerns have intensified, prompting a reassessment of the European Central Bank’s policy outlook. Investors now expect three interest rate hikes in 2026, up from two just a day earlier. Before the conflict, markets had anticipated no hikes at all, with some even betting on monetary easing.