US stocks rose on Friday with the S&P 500 gaining 0.7% and the Nasdaq rose 0.9% after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The Dow added 0.5%, recovering from early losses despite a weak 1.4% GDP print weighed down by the government shutdown. While the court ruled the administration lacked authority under IEEPA to impose sweeping duties, Trump immediately countered by announcing a new 10% global tariff via executive order. Amazon and Home Depot jumped 2.6% and 1% as investors weighed potential refunds of $175 billion against the threat of these new levies. Tech strength helped the Nasdaq snap a five-week losing streak even as core PCE inflation held at a sticky 3%, keeping the Fed on guard with Alphabet leading the way after adding 3.7%. Traders now face a new tug-of-war as the removal of original tariff uncertainty is met by fresh protectionist measures, with the White House vowing a stronger direction.

Results and guidance by Nvidia next week will serve as bellwether for the global AI demand that has carried US equity markets in the last quarters. US economic data will be headlined by producer prices, housing prices, consumer confidence gauges, and leading indicators by regional Federal Reserve banks. Consumer prices will be the focus in Germany, France, Australia, and Singapore. In turn, GDP aggregates for the fourth quarter are expected from Canada, Switzerland, India, and Turkey. Lastly, the People's Bank of China will set key prime rates as the world's second largest economy returns from its Lunar New Year holiday. The Bank of Korea will also hold a policy decision.

WTI crude oil futures fluctuated around $66 per barrel on Friday, near a six-month high and set for a weekly gain of 5%, after US President Donald Trump said he is considering a limited military strike on Iran and warned Tehran it has 15 days at most to reach a nuclear deal. At the same time, the US is conducting its largest military buildup in the Middle East since 2003, increasing the risk of a broader conflict. Iran produces over 3 million barrels per day, about 3% of global output, mainly for China, and could threaten the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route. Oil prices were also supported by equities rising after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. Adding to bullish momentum, government data showed US crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels last week, marking the steepest draw since early September.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI fell to 52.3 in February 2026 from 53.0 in January, signaling the slowest pace of private-sector expansion since April 2025, according to preliminary data. Growth moderated across both sectors, with manufacturing and services activity easing to seven- and ten-month lows, respectively. New orders also softened, while export demand declined at one of the sharpest rates in the past year. Employment increased only marginally for a third straight month, marking the weakest job growth since last April. On the pricing side, input cost inflation edged higher, often linked to tariffs and rising labor expenses, while output prices climbed at the fastest pace since August. Despite the slowdown, business confidence strengthened, with year-ahead output expectations rising to a 13-month high.

Canada’s retail sales are estimated to have increased 1.5% month over month in January 2026, which, if confirmed, would mark a rebound after a 0.4% decline in December and sharpest increase since December 2024 according to advance estimates. In December retail sales fell 0.4% to C$70.0 billion with sales down in three of nine subsectors led by motor vehicle and parts dealers which dropped 1.6%. Core retail sales excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle dealers fell 0.3%. Gains in December were concentrated at gasoline stations and fuel vendors up 2.8% and at sporting goods hobby musical instrument book and miscellaneous retailers up 1.0% while building material and garden equipment and furniture home electronics retailers posted the largest declines. Retail sales fell in seven provinces with Alberta the largest decline at 2.1% while Quebec rose 0.6%. Year on year retail sales were essentially unchanged in December.

The US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in December 2025, following a 0.2% increase in November, the most since February and above market expectations of 0.3%. Prices for goods were up 0.4%, accelerating from 0.1% in November while prices of services rose at a faster 0.3%, compared with 0.2% in November. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4%, also above forecasts of 0.3%. Separately, prices for food rose 0.4% and cost for energy goods and services went up 0.2%, easing from a 1.7% rise. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8%, above forecasts of 2.8%. Core PCE inflation also edged up to 3% from 2.8% in November and above expectations of 2.9%. The PCE index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.