Next week, the conflict with Iran will remain in focus as it enters its sixth week. Traders will continue to assess prospects for de-escalation, as well as any concrete developments toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, following ongoing back-and-forth in recent weeks. In the US, attention will turn to the FOMC minutes, CPI data, the ISM Services PMI, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, and the PCE report. Investors will also look to fresh corporate earnings, including results from Delta Air Lines, as the earnings season gathers momentum mid-month. Elsewhere, key releases include China’s CPI, Germany’s factory orders, and the monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of India.

The S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8 in March of 2026 from 51.7 in the previous month, revised lower from the preliminary estimate of 51.1, signaling the first contraction in the sector in over three years. The decline came amid the weakest growth in new business since April 2024, as firms cited reduced client confidence and softer demand, partly linked to the impact of the Middle East conflict. Export activity also deteriorated further, with tariffs and geopolitical tensions weighing on trade. Business sentiment weakened to a five-month low as rising energy costs raised concerns over inflation and consumer spending. Employment edged lower for the first time since December, reflecting caution among firms. Input cost inflation accelerated to its highest level this year, driven largely by higher energy prices, while companies continued to pass on rising costs to clients, pushing selling price inflation to an eight-month high.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.35% in a shortened session on Friday, moving further away from two-week lows reached earlier in the week, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The US economy added 178K jobs in March, nearly three times market forecasts of 60K while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% and wage growth slowed. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged this year. Investors also continued to assess developments in the Middle East. US President Trump intensified his rhetoric against Iran, threatening to target the country’s infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, while Iran reportedly struck additional sites in Arab Gulf states. Elevated energy prices are fuelling concerns about a potential inflationary spiral. Trading volumes are expected to remain light due to the Good Friday holiday, with US equity markets closed and bond markets operating on a shortened schedule.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $37.38 in March 2026, marking the smallest increase in three months. This followed 0.4% gains in both January and February and came in below market expectations of a 0.3% rise. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 5 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.07. Year-on-year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5% in March, the least since May 2021, following a 3.8% rise in February and compared to forecasts of 3.7%.

The FAO Food Price Index increased for a 2nd straight month to 128.5 points in March 2026, the highest since September. Prices across all commodity groups rose, reflecting not only underlying market fundamentals but also responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Vegetable oil prices jumped 5.1% to a fresh high since June 2022, driven by rising quotations across palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils. Sugar soared 7.2% mainly influenced by higher crude oil prices, raising expectations that Brazil, the world’s top sugar exporter, would rely more on sugarcane-based ethanol during the upcoming harvest. Cost for cereals went up 1.5% to hit the highest level since April 2025, reflecting higher quotations for all major cereals except rice. Also, dairy prices were up 1.2%, the first increase since July 2025, driven primarily by higher quotations for skim milk powder, butter, and whole milk powder. Meat increased 1% mainly driven by higher pig meat prices.

The annual inflation rate in Turkey eased to 30.87% in March 2026, down from 31.53% in February which was the highest level since October 2025, and below market expectations of 31.4%. The softer-than-expected reading suggests that anticipated increases in fuel prices, along with weather-related pressures on food inflation, have so far been more subdued. A slowdown was seen in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages (32.36% vs 36.44% in January), housing (42.06% vs 42.33%), education (51.97% vs 55.78%), and hotels, cafes and restaurants (31.66% vs 32.93%). On the other hand, prices rose faster for transport (34.35% vs 28.86%), health (29.98% vs 29.26%), information and communication (24.12% vs 22.41%), recreation and culture (27.4% vs 27.24%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 1.94%, the least in three months and compared to 2.96% in February and forecasts of 2.32%. Transport recorded the biggest increase (4.52%) and made the largest impact.