The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US increased to 52.7 in March 2026 from 52.4 in February and above forecasts of 52.5. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in factory activity since August 2022, led by a faster increase in production (55.1 vs 53.5) while new orders slowed (53.5 vs 55.8) and employment contracted slightly faster (48.7 vs 48.8). Also, the prices index jumped to 78.3, the highest since June 2022, from 70.5. “The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated a further slowing for the fourth month in a row (58.9 vs 55.1). March "also marks the first report with panelists citing the Iran war as a new impact to their business, along with ongoing uncertainty with U.S. economic policy, despite the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. In March, 64% of comments overall were negative. Among the negative comments, about 20% cited tariffs and about 40% the war in the Middle East", Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM said.

WTI crude futures settled at $99.60 per barrel on Wednesday as growing optimism for a resolution to the conflict with Iran pulled prices lower to start the new month. President Donald Trump suggested US military forces could leave the region within two or three weeks while confirming that Iran’s president has requested a ceasefire. Despite these gains, the White House maintained a firm stance noting that a ceasefire would only be considered once the Strait of Hormuz is open and secure for global shipping. Elsewhere, commercial crude stocks surged by 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million in the week ended March 27 which far exceeded analyst expectations and marked the sixth consecutive weekly increase. This domestic surplus was driven by a drop in refinery utilization to 92.1% and a decrease in crude runs of 219,000 barrels per day. The strategic waterway remains a critical focus for energy markets after oil funds saw record trading volumes in March.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.6% on Wednesday as growing optimism for a resolution to the Middle East conflict fueled a second day of gains to start the month. Market sentiment improved after President Donald Trump indicated that Iran requested a ceasefire and suggested US military forces could leave the region within weeks provided the Strait of Hormuz is secure and operational. These developments pulled crude futures down as the geopolitical risk premium faded from energy markets. Tech giants outperformed as Alphabet surged 2.8% and Micron Technology jumped 8.9% alongside gains for Meta (1.4%) and Amazon (1.1%). Conversely, Nike plunged 15.6% on muted guidance. Meanwhile benchmark Treasury yields remained steady after fresh ADP data showed the private sector added 62K jobs in March highlighting the resilience of the domestic economy. Investors now await a national address from the White House for an update on the war with Iran.

Retail sales in the US jumped 0.6% month-over-month in February 2026, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in January and above forecasts of a 0.5% gain. It is the strongest performance in seven months, with sales rising the most at department stores (3%), health and personal care stores (2.3%), clothing (2%), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores (1.3%), motor vehicle and part dealers (1.2%) and miscellaneous store retailers (1.1%). Other increases were also seen in gasoline stations (0.9%), nonstore retailers (0.7%), electronics and appliances (0.5%) and building material and garden equipment (0.4%). On the other hand, retail sales were lower at food and beverages (-1%) and furniture (-1%) stores. Meanwhile, sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, were up 0.5%, higher than forecasts of 0.3%.

Private businesses in the US added a net 62,000 jobs in March of 2026, extending the upwardly revised 66,000 in February and above market expectations of a 40,000 increase. The result held signs of resilience in the labor market per the latest leading indicators, despite economic uncertainty and the pullback in the labor force growth amid lower immigration. Education and health services jobs rose by 58,000 to remain the main source of job growth. Other gains were seen in construction (30,000), natural resources and mining (11,000), information (16,000), leisure and hospitality (7,000), and financial activities (4,000). In turn, a net 58,000 jobs were lost in trade, transportation, and utilities, while 11,000 positions were lost in manufacturing. "Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers." - ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson.

Brazil's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.0 in March 2026 from 47.3 in February, marking the slowest contraction since May 2025 but remaining below 50.0 for the 11th consecutive month. New orders fell sharply, though at the slowest pace since December, as weak demand, Middle East tensions, and constrained budgets weighed on sales. Export orders stabilized after 11 months of decline, with some firms accessing new markets via US tariffs, though Argentina and China sales fell. Factory production contracted mildly, the weakest since October, with some restocking offsetting order cancellations. Input costs surged to an 18-month high on Middle East tensions and oil prices, prompting firms to raise selling prices to an 11-month peak. Employment rose slightly for the second straight month. Business confidence weakened to an 11-month low amid competition, geopolitical risks, and election uncertainty.