The US PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.4% month over month in February 2026, slightly above January’s 0.3% increase. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, is also projected to grow by 0.4%, matching the previous month’s pace. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation is likely to remain steady at 2.8%, while the core rate is expected to ease slightly to 3% from 3.1%. Overall, the report is anticipated to indicate that price pressures remained elevated, broadly in line with recent months and still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in February, prior to the onset of the war with Iran. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

US equity futures inched lower on Thursday, trimming the rally from the previous session as signs of fragility in the US-Iran ceasefire limited optimism over lower energy prices. Contracts for the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq 100 were up to 0.5% lower. Iran officials accused the US of violating their agreement and Tehran continued to threaten vessels on standby to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The developments marked a pivot from the US's signal that the agreement would restore oil flows from the region and pave the way toward peace, which triggered a plunge in energy prices and bond yields in the previous session. Tech giants were lower pre-market as the recovery in risk sentiment had provided a boost yesterday, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom down over 0.5%. Minutes from the FOMC recently published confirmed that policymakers are more cautious to inflationary pressures from the war, and tomorrow's CPI print will quantify the initial impact of higher energy prices.

Manufacturing activity in South Africa slipped by 2.8% year-on-year in February 2026, following a downwardly revised 0.1% fall in January and worse than the expected 0.3% decrease. This marks the fourth consecutive month of downturn in industrial activity and the most pronounced since April 2025, mainly on account of food & beverages (-4.5%); wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-9.7%) and basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-3.6%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, output fell by 2.2%, after an upwardly revised 1.9% rise in the previous month. Manufacturing production decreased by 2% in the three months ended February 2026 compared with the previous three months.

Industrial production in Spain decreased by 1.1% year-on-year in February 2026, following a revised 0.2% fall in January and missing market forecasts of a 1.5% rise. This marks the third consecutive of downturn in industrial activity and the steepest in a year, amid lower production of durable consumer goods (-6.3% vs -9.7% in January), intermediate goods (-2.7% vs -3.1%) and energy (-1.5% vs 4.8%). At the same time, output remained flat for capital goods while it rebounded for non-durable consumer goods (0.6% vs -1.7%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity edged down by 0.1%, after an upwardly revised 0.7% fall in January.

Germany’s exports grew 3.6% month-on-month to a three-year high of €135.2 billion in February 2026, following a downwardly revised 1.5% drop in January and exceeding market expectations of a 1% rise. Shipments to EU member states rose 5.8%, with exports to the Eurozone climbing 5.2% and those to non-Eurozone countries advancing 7.4%. Exports to third countries also increased 0.8%, supported by a 4.1% rise in shipments to the UK and a 26.9% jump in exports to Russia. By contrast, exports to the United States, Germany’s largest export market, fell 7.5%, while those to China dropped 2.5%. For the first two months of 2026, outbound shipments rose 1.6% year-on-year to €265.8 billion.

Japan’s consumer confidence index dropped to 33.3 in March 2026 from a downwardly revised 39.7 in the previous month, which was the highest figure since April 2019, below market forecasts of 38 and marking the lowest figure since May 2025. All components posted falls, including overall livelihood (29.7 vs 39.7 in February), income growth (39.8 vs 42.5), employment outlook (37.6 vs 44.0), and the willingness to purchase durable goods (26.0 vs 33.9).