Crude oil fell below $93 per barrel on Tuesday, ending a three-session winning streak as investors weighed the impact of Russian diesel exports against escalating geopolitical tensions. Russia partially lifted its diesel export restrictions on October 10 following an agreement with the US, helping ease supply constraints in global fuel markets. However, US lawmakers argued that President Trump’s agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to violate US law prohibiting Russian energy imports until Moscow ends its aggression against Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also vowed to continue strikes against Russia as Moscow persists in targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, breaching the “energy ceasefire” previously announced by Trump. Meanwhile, the Trump administration faces mounting pressure to support Saudi Arabia in its fight against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen following missile and drone attacks on Riyadh’s main airport.

Gold fell toward $4,150 an ounce on Tuesday, declining for a second consecutive session as the US dollar climbed to an 18-month high ahead of key inflation reports that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. The US consumer price index is due on Wednesday, followed by producer inflation data on Thursday. Markets are pricing in roughly an 80% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month, while assigning nearly an 88% chance of a rate hike in December. Investors also monitored geopolitical tensions as the US considers joining Saudi Arabia in its campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, while the recently announced Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” has already been violated. These developments have kept oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns and increasing expectations of further interest rate hikes.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting showed that policymakers unanimously raised the cash rate by 25bps to 4.6%, citing persistent inflation risks. The meeting record also indicated that further rate hikes remained possible, as several upside threats flagged in August had materialised, including Middle East tensions driving oil above forecasts, global cost pressures partly tied to AI demand, and stronger domestic activity. Meanwhile, inflation readings exceeded expectations, with businesses reporting widespread cost pass-throughs. Short-term expectations stayed high, raising concern about medium-term drift. While the labour market eased broadly as anticipated, demand remained firm and capacity pressures stronger than assessed. Members warned that delaying action risked entrenching inflation after a prolonged period above target. They also noted that holding steady could weaken the Australian dollar as other central banks tightened.

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index fell to -13 in September 2026 from a revised -9 in the prior month, its lowest since May and the seventh straight month of negative sentiment. Confidence stayed well below average amid oil price volatility and renewed Middle East tensions, heightening cost concerns. Sentiment weakened in five of eight industries, though mining, wholesale and retail improved. Meanwhile, business conditions were broadly steady, as modest gains in profitability and trading were offset by employment sliding to a five-year low. Purchase costs remained elevated, continuing to outpace final price growth, while capacity utilisation stayed above average in most sectors, underscoring persistent pressures. The survey points to slower Q3 growth and softer labour demand ahead. The mix of weak confidence, high costs, above-average utilisation and subdued profitability highlights risks of further price pass-through and a sharper slowdown in activity into late 2026.

Japan’s producer prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September 2026, slowing from August’s pace and market expectations of 7.6% and marking the weakest growth since May. The moderation suggests easing upstream cost pressures, although producer inflation remained elevated. Prices moderated for transport equipment (2.3% vs 2.5% in August), drinks and foods (4.2% vs 4.3%), petroleum & coal (11.5% vs 14.7%), production machinery (4.3% vs 4.5%), and textiles (1.4% vs 2.2%). Meanwhile, costs accelerated for chemicals (13.3% vs 13.0%), iron & steel (3.2% vs 2.7%), electrical machinery (5.1% vs 4.9%), metal products (5.1% vs 3.8%), electronic components (4.9% vs 4.4%), and information and communications (15.3% vs 14.8%).On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.3%, matching the revised decline in August and marking a second consecutive monthly contraction. The result also defied market expectations for a 0.5% increase.

UK retail sales rose by 1.0% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis in September 2026, exceeding forecasts for a 0.7% gain and accelerating from 0.5% in the previous month. Total retail sales growth also picked up to 1.3% from 0.7%, but remained below the 12-month average of 1.5%. Food sales increased by 2.5%, while non-food sales edged up by 0.3%. Health and beauty products recorded their strongest growth of the year, while clothing and footwear sales weakened due to unseasonably warm weather. Separately, Barclays' measure of consumer spending rose 2.0% year-on-year, slowing from 2.1% in August. Essential spending climbed 2.5%, driven by a 17.3% jump in fuel spending as diesel prices reached record highs, while non-essential spending increased 1.8%. Household financial confidence rose to a seven-month high of 67%, although 68% remained concerned about the upcoming budget's impact on their finances and 30% were cutting back on non-essential spending.