Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia’s PMI plunged to 48.8 in March 2026 from 56.1 in the prior month, signaling the first drop in the non-oil private sector in near six years and the steepest downturn since a record low in March 2020. The decline stemmed from Middle East war disruptions that strained supply chains and delayed client spending. New orders stalled, export demand shrank the most in six years, and output growth eased. Buying levels slowed, though inventories rose, reflecting limited stockpile reduction. Employment rose but at a weaker pace, while delivery times lengthened the most since June 2020 amid shipping delays and higher fuel costs. Supply constraints lifted backlogs to their highest since July 2018. On inflation, input cost rose the least in a year on softer wage pressures, though fuel and freight costs raised purchasing and selling prices. Sentiment dipped to its lowest since June 2020, as war concerns overshadowed support from government spending.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.65% in March 2026 from 3.35% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January 2023 and the fastest March year-on-year CPI increase in the past five years. Upward price pressures were broad-based across most components, including food (4.72% vs 5.28% in February), beverages and tobacco (3.44% vs 3.03%), clothing, hats, and footwear (1.82% vs 1.87%), housing electricity, water, fuel and building materials (5.88% vs 5.60%), household equipment and goods (2.44% vs 2.23%), healthcare (1.0% vs 0.74%), transport (10.81% vs -3.19%), education (3.30% vs 3.21%), culture, entertainment and tourism (2.07% vs 2.31%), and other goods and services (4.01% vs 4.10%). At the same time, cost of communication remained broadly stable (-0.07% vs -0.24%). Core inflation rose to 3.96% in March from the prior 3.74%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 1.23%, after 1.14% gain in February, the steepest pace since February 2021.

Next week, the conflict with Iran will remain in focus as it enters its sixth week. Traders will continue to assess prospects for de-escalation, as well as any concrete developments toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, following ongoing back-and-forth in recent weeks. In the US, attention will turn to the FOMC minutes, CPI data, the ISM Services PMI, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, and the PCE report. Investors will also look to fresh corporate earnings, including results from Delta Air Lines, as the earnings season gathers momentum mid-month. Elsewhere, key releases include China’s CPI, Germany’s factory orders, and the monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of India.

The S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8 in March of 2026 from 51.7 in the previous month, revised lower from the preliminary estimate of 51.1, signaling the first contraction in the sector in over three years. The decline came amid the weakest growth in new business since April 2024, as firms cited reduced client confidence and softer demand, partly linked to the impact of the Middle East conflict. Export activity also deteriorated further, with tariffs and geopolitical tensions weighing on trade. Business sentiment weakened to a five-month low as rising energy costs raised concerns over inflation and consumer spending. Employment edged lower for the first time since December, reflecting caution among firms. Input cost inflation accelerated to its highest level this year, driven largely by higher energy prices, while companies continued to pass on rising costs to clients, pushing selling price inflation to an eight-month high.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.35% in a shortened session on Friday, moving further away from two-week lows reached earlier in the week, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The US economy added 178K jobs in March, nearly three times market forecasts of 60K while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% and wage growth slowed. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged this year. Investors also continued to assess developments in the Middle East. US President Trump intensified his rhetoric against Iran, threatening to target the country’s infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, while Iran reportedly struck additional sites in Arab Gulf states. Elevated energy prices are fuelling concerns about a potential inflationary spiral. Trading volumes are expected to remain light due to the Good Friday holiday, with US equity markets closed and bond markets operating on a shortened schedule.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $37.38 in March 2026, marking the smallest increase in three months. This followed 0.4% gains in both January and February and came in below market expectations of a 0.3% rise. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 5 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.07. Year-on-year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5% in March, the least since May 2021, following a 3.8% rise in February and compared to forecasts of 3.7%.