Brent crude oil futures fell 2% to $102 per barrel in the first trading session of April, following a record monthly jump in March, weighed by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. President Trump told reporters that US forces could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks and suggested a deal with Tehran might be possible, though not necessary to end the conflict. However, uncertainty remained as additional US troops arrived in the region, while Tehran said no formal peace talks were underway but signaled a willingness to end the war if its conditions are met. All eyes are now on Trump’s nationwide address on the Iran conflict later today. Meanwhile, Iranian drones struck fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, triggering a large fire and causing damage, adding to recent attacks on energy infrastructure. Elsewhere, API data showed US crude inventories surged by 10.263 million barrels last week.

US equity futures were firmly higher on Wednesday, extending the surge from the previous session as signs that the US and Iran could reach a deal to end the war eased stagflation concerns. Contracts for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 gained around 1%. President Trump signaled that the US was closer to ending the war and Iranian officials stated they were ready to cease attacks should their conditions be met. The developments pulled back the recent surge in energy commodity prices despite more attacks on tankers and infrastructure in Gulf countries, aiding a retreat in benchmark Treasury yields. Still, some pressure on Treasuries remained as data is set to reflect a rebound in retail sales. Tech giants rose as stronger risk sentiment coincided with bullish signs for the AI sector following OpenAI's fresh funding round, with new backing by Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank. Meanwhile, Nike sank 10% on a muted guidance.

The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans of $806,500 or less increased for a fourth consecutive week to 6.57% for the week ending March 27th, 2026, reaching its highest level since the last week of August, compared to 6.43% in the previous week. Mortgage rates climbed as Treasury yields rose, driven by geopolitical tensions from the ongoing war with Iran that pushed oil prices to their highest levels since 2022. The surge in energy costs has stoked inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, mortgage applications tumbled 10.4%, following a 10.5% drop in the previous week, with applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly interest rate move, tumbling 17.3% and those to purchase a home falling 2.5%. “The shocks of the jump in rates and the increase in overall economic uncertainty are likely having an impact on buyer confidence,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said.

The unemployment rate in Italy edged up to 5.3% in February 2026 from an upwardly revised 5.2% in January, which was the lowest level on record. The latest figure came in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed individuals rose by 36 thousand month-on-month, reaching 1.36 million. Meanwhile, the employment rate fell to 62.4% from 62.6%, with the number of employed persons falling by 29 thousand to 24.15 million. The drop affected both permanent and temporary employees, while the number of self-employed workers increased. The country’s employment rate remained among the lowest in the euro zone. Meanwhile, the youth unemployment rate, measuring jobseekers between 15 and 24 years old, dropped to a record low of 17.6% in February from 18.5% in January. The inactivity rate held steady at 33.9%.

The S&P Global Spain Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in March 2026 from 50 in February, marking the weakest reading since April 2025 and missing market expectations of 50.4. The Middle East conflict intensified, driving geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain disruption and sharply higher energy and input costs. Output and new orders declined at a faster pace, with international demand posting its steepest drop since last April, while employment fell notably as firms adjusted to weaker conditions. Business confidence deteriorated sharply, hitting its lowest level since October 2023, as firms cited concerns over prolonged economic slowdown and rising inflation. Input prices surged to their highest since late 2022, supplier delays worsened to the greatest extent in over three years, and companies increasingly relied on existing inventories while cutting purchases and raising selling prices where possible.

The dollar index fell to 99.5 on the first trading day of April, hitting its lowest level in a week amid hopes for a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict. President Donald Trump said the US would wrap up its military campaign in Iran in two or three weeks with or without a deal. Still, traders remain cautious as more US troops are being deployed to the region and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Market participants are now awaiting Trump’s nationwide address on the Iran situation later in the day. Last month, the dollar gained 2.3% as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid fears of a prolonged war. The currency was also supported by diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, as the conflict drove oil prices sharply higher, stoking inflation concerns. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to reassure markets, saying that long-term US inflation expectations remain grounded.