The S&P Spain Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in March 2026 from 50 in February, marking the weakest reading since April 2025 and missing market expectations of 50.4. The Middle East conflict intensified, driving geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain disruption and sharply higher energy and input costs. Output and new orders declined at a faster pace, with international demand posting its steepest drop since last April, while employment fell notably as firms adjusted to weaker conditions. Business confidence deteriorated sharply, hitting its lowest level since October 2023, as firms cited concerns over prolonged economic slowdown and rising inflation. Input prices surged to their highest since late 2022, supplier delays worsened to the greatest extent in over three years, and companies increasingly relied on existing inventories while cutting purchases and raising selling prices where possible.

Brent crude oil futures slid over 4% below $100 per barrel in the first trading session of April, following a record monthly jump in March, weighed by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. President Trump told reporters that US forces could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks and suggested a deal with Tehran might be possible, though not necessary to end the conflict. However, uncertainty remained as additional US troops arrived in the region, while Tehran said no formal peace talks were underway but signaled a willingness to end the war if its conditions are met. All eyes are now on Trump’s nationwide address on the Iran conflict later today. Meanwhile, Iranian drones struck fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, triggering a large fire and causing damage, adding to recent attacks on energy infrastructure. Elsewhere, API data showed US crude inventories surged by 10.263 million barrels last week.

Russia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in March from 49.5, marking the lowest since December and a tenth straight month of drop in factory activity. Output declined at the sharpest pace in three months, while new orders shrank the most since last October. Foreign demand remained weak, though the pace of decline eased slightly. Buying levels plunged, posting the steepest fall in four years, and employment dropped for a fourth month. Backlogs fell further, with depletion accelerating despite supply delays from logistical disruptions. On prices, input cost pressures intensified, rising at the second-fastest pace in over a year on higher fuel and supplier prices, though still below the long-term trend. Firms passed on some costs, but output price inflation slowed to a marginal, historically subdued rate. Lastly, business confidence weakened for a second month, hitting its lowest in nearly four years amid fragile demand and solvency concerns.

Indonesia’s annual inflation eased to 3.48% in March 2026 from 4.76% in the previous month, marking the lowest level since December and falling short of market expectations of 3.60%. The latest reading remained within the central bank's 1-1/2%–3-1/2% target range, as price growth slowed for food (3.34% vs 3.51% in February), clothing (0.65% vs 0.73%), housing (7.24% vs 16.19%), and health (1.49% vs 1.61%). Meantime, communication costs were almost flat (-0.03% vs -0.09%). In contrast, inflation accelerated for furnishings (0.24% vs 0.21%), transport (0.61% vs 0.12%), recreation (1.08% vs 0.96%), education (1.14% vs 1.11%), and restaurants (1.42% vs 1.37%). Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and administered prices, dropped to 2.52% from February's 2.63%, below forecasts of 2.63%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.41%, moderating from a 0.68% increase in February, though still indicating a second consecutive month of gains.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March 2026 from 52.1 in February, signaling a slowdown in factory expansion and below the expected 51.6. Output and new orders continued to rise, though at a slower pace, with production expanding for the fourth consecutive month. Backlogs increased as demand outpaced production, while employment rose for the third month, marking the longest stretch of job creation since mid-2021. Buying activity continued to expand, lifting input stocks slightly, though finished goods inventories contracted marginally. Supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since December 2022. Input price inflation surged to its highest since March 2022, while output price inflation hit a four-year peak, driven by rising energy costs amid Middle East tensions. Despite these pressures, manufacturers remained optimistic for production over the next 12 months, supported by stronger demand, capacity investment, and government policies.

The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers edged up to 17 in Q1 2026, beating market estimates of 16 and marking the highest level since Q4 2021. The uptick suggested Middle East conflict risks have yet to dent business morale. Confidence strengthened across firms producing pulp (44 vs 40 in Q4), electrical machinery (22 vs 21), processed metals (16 vs 10), general-purpose machinery (34 vs 27), production machinery (26 vs 16), motor vehicles (13 vs 9), and business-oriented machinery (15 vs 9). Meanwhile, sentiment held steady in iron & steel (-15), food & drinks (9), and shipbuilding (35). On the other hand, weaker readings came from textiles (-5 vs -4), lumber & wood (0 vs 7), petroleum (18 vs 36), and chemicals (14 vs 19). Simultaneously, large firms plan to lift capital expenditure by just 3.3% in Q1, sharply down from 12.6% previously and the softest rise since Q1 2023, reflecting high borrowing costs and intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.